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On Tuesday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly, with the highest 14485 yuan / ton and the lowest 14370 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14435 yuan / ton, up 0.
21% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1761 / ton, up 0.
23%
per day.
Market focus: (1) On August 17, the United States once again upgraded its ban on Huawei, 38 Huawei subsidiaries were included in the entity list, and the total number of institutions associated with Huawei on the US entity list increased to 152
.
(2) The People's Bank of China today achieved a net investment of 50 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations
after yesterday's 700 billion MLF exceeded expectations.
(3) According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 266,700 tons of aluminum were used in China's automobile industry in July, and 1,478,700 tons
of aluminum were used from January to July.
Spot analysis: On August 18, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14520-14560 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14540 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 120 yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Tuesday totaled 145801 tons, a daily increase of 625 tons, an increase of 11 consecutive days; On August 17, LME aluminum stocks were 1588325 tons, down 6,000 tons per day, down 15 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 70084 lots, minus 95 lots per day, short positions are 85287 lots, daily increase of 665 lots, net short positions are 15203 lots, daily increase of 760 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: On August 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 fluctuated slightly
.
The intensification of US crackdown on Chinese companies, rising tensions between the two countries, increasing market concerns; At the same time, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity gradually recovered, and the downstream demand gradually weakened, and the Shanghai aluminum inventory has recently entered the inventory increase cycle, and the pressure on the aluminum price has gradually increased
.
However, the new crown epidemic in the United States continues to spread, and the stimulus plan remains deadlocked, and the dollar index continues to be weak; At the same time, the current electrolytic aluminum inventory is still at a low level overall, and the pressure on the supply side is still limited, and there is still some support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the center of gravity of the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum has shifted upward, and the daily KDJ indicator golden cross is expected to be strong in the short term
.
