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Trade Service
The dollar retreated slightly today, and the metals market took a
slight breather.
The performance of the outer metal was slightly inferior to the internal market, and the inner metal closed up nearly all at noon, and the Shanghai copper rose the least, closing only up 0.
07%.
On the macro front, the United States reported that GDP fell 1.
4% month-on-month in the first quarter, unexpectedly upset, and increased by 6.
9% month-on-month in the previous quarter, compared with the expectation of 1.
1%
growth in the first quarter.
The analysis believes that the wave of infections caused by the omicron virus in the first quarter, the surge in inflation and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine are the main factors
.
These factors are set to continue, so the economic outlook is expected to weaken sharply, exacerbating
the bearishness for medium-term capital markets.
On the other hand, the sharp economic slowdown has also made the Fed more dilemma in monetary policy, and there is a possibility
that interest rate hike expectations may be repeatedly revised.
In terms of the market, LME stocks increased by another 2,000 tons, totaling 150,000 tons, which is still an increase in Asian stocks, a small reduction in the United States, and a spot discount of $1
.
Due to the export of Chinese refineries, a large number of stocks were moved to LME warehouses, which put pressure on the LME, but domestic inventories as a mainstream consumption place continued to decrease, spot stocks maintained high premiums, and the import window has been reopened, and the growth momentum of LME inventories may gradually weaken.
In terms of news, the Las Bangbas mine in Peru declared a state of emergency, after the mine had been repeatedly blocked for half a month
.
In addition, Trafigura and Glencore announced first-quarter production, and copper production decreased
.
Chile and Peru have produced less than expected so far this year, and increased supply disruptions may support medium-term prices
.
In summary: pay attention to the energy game between Russia and Europe, high inflation expectations remain unchanged, but the unexpected explosion of US data strengthens recession expectations, and the bearish is aggravated
.
Domestic infrastructure construction and resumption of work have improved confidence, bearish sentiment has eased, the price structure has turned strong after the spot decline, and the absolute price has retreated to stimulate downstream replenishment, and spot support is strong
.
After the holiday, demand continued to recover, prices recovered, maintained the dip holding strategy, and stocked up
for the holiday.
