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According to the ICIS-MRC website in Moscow on November 15, according to information from the hydrocarbon processing network, EIA predicts that crude oil prices will begin to decline in November 2021 and will continue until 2022
.
We expect WTI prices to fall from an average of $76/b in January 2022 to $62/b in December and Brent crude to $66/b in December from $79/b in January 2022
, EIA said.
Since the third quarter of 2020, global demand for crude oil and petroleum products has grown faster than production, resulting in lower inventories and higher crude oil prices
.
In February 2020, before the World Health Organization declared the pandemic, Brent crude oil averaged $56/b and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was $51/b
.
Due to the sharp drop in demand due to the pandemic, the spot price of Brent crude oil fell to $18/b in April 2020 and WTI fell to $17/barrel
.
Oil prices have since risen due to a recovery in demand and slowing global oil production growth and are now above pre-pandemic levels
.
In October, Brent crude oil averaged $84/barrel and WTI crude oil averaged $81/barrel, the highest nominal price
since October 2014.
In EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released in November, they predicted that global liquid fuel inventories would begin to increase in 2022, driven by OPEC+ and increased U.
S
.
production, which would lead to lower crude oil prices.
The futures market has seen higher
prices in the near future compared to longer-term contracts.
Factors such as crude oil inventory levels affect the relationship between
short-term and long-term futures prices.
The price difference between recently delivered crude contracts and later delivery indicates that the market expects a slowdown
in inventory reduction.
Low crude inventories globally and in the United States have put upward pressure on near-term contract prices, while longer-term contract prices may reflect more balanced market expectations
.
Due to upward pressure on near-term contracts, near-term contracts are priced higher than long-term contracts, a situation known as spot premium
.
When the price of a near-term contract is lower than the price of a longer-term contract, this is called a futures premium
.
