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On the first day after the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1703 fell sharply unilaterally, closing at 46780 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 1040 points, or 2.
17%, from the settlement price of the previous trading day, with a position of 153148 lots, a daily reduction of 6432 lots, and a volume of 119846 lots
.
In terms of term structure, the copper market maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between the Shanghai copper 1702 contract and the 1703 contract widened to 160 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract has increased its willingness to resist decline
.
Externally: Asian Lun copper fell under pressure under the drag of the decline of Shanghai copper, of which the 3-month London copper fell to 5802 US dollars / ton, and now fell 1.
19% to 5836 US dollars / ton, down 2.
18%
from 5966 US dollars / ton before the holiday.
In terms of positions, on February 1, the position of London copper was 331,000 lots, a daily decrease of 2,746 lots, and the bottom of the position of London copper was reduced, indicating that bears dominated, long funds were not very active, and the sentiment of the copper market was relatively sluggish
.
Macro: During the Spring Festival holiday, the dollar index fell day by day due to
Trump's weak dollar remarks.
The Asian dollar index fluctuated widely, reaching as high as 99.
964 and is now trading around
99.
91.
In addition, the central bank raised the reverse repo winning interest rate by 10 basis points across the board, and raised the SLF interest rate, and raised the overnight variety by 35 basis points to 3.
1%.
In terms of industry information, data released by the Chilean government showed that Chile's copper production in December was 503,874 tons, an increase of 1.
6% from the same period last year, and the country's copper production in 2016 was 5,572,375 tons, down 3.
8%
from the previous year.
In terms of market: on February 3, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot reported a discount of 100 yuan / ton - flat water for the current month's contract, the trading price of flat water copper was 46450 yuan / ton - 46780 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of premium copper was 46520 yuan / ton - 46850 yuan / ton
.
Based on the expectation of downstream replenishment demand after the year, and gradually approaching delivery after February, the holder is determined to narrow the discount, flat water copper around the discount of about 80 yuan / ton quotation, wet copper in order to attract downstream into the market, the discount from 120 yuan / ton to 180-150 yuan / ton range rapidly
.
Fundamentally, on the first trading day after the holiday, most of the supply and demand sides have not returned to the market, but there is a high expectation of replenishment demand; The latest London copper stocks reported by the LME continued to fall slightly, extending the decline during the long holiday
.
On the technical side, there is 20-day and 60-day moving average support below Shanghai copper, and the position continues to shrink, indicating that there is a high probability of stopping the decline and rising, but before that, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1703 contract can be sold high and low between 46500-47500 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 500 yuan / ton
each.
