The forecast decline in domestic oil prices will expand to 160 yuan / ton, and No. 95 gasoline is expected to fall by 0.14 yuan / liter

From the perspective of China's refined oil price adjustment mechanism, the second round of oil price adjustment window in 2023 will be opened at 24 o'clock on January 17, and the Spring Festival will soon be after the price adjustment is implemented, so this is a refined oil price adjustment before Chinese New Year's Eve, when the price of gasoline and diesel will show new changes, and the refueling cost of car owners and friends will also fluctuate
。 Of course, according to the performance of the first and second working days of the current pricing cycle, the next round of price adjustment is more likely to fall, because the current market concerns about oil demand intensify, so that oil prices continue to come under pressure, the price adjustment reference crude oil change rate runs in a negative range, such as the second working day crude oil change rate -3.
81%, compared with the first working day of the pricing cycle The decline is significantly deepened, and the domestic oil price forecast decline expands to 160 yuan / ton, which is much higher than the red line of price adjustment, and fully meets the standard of price adjustment decline , laying the foundation
for this price reduction.

Converted into a liter price, it is expected that the current oil price decline range is 0.
12 yuan / liter -0.
14 yuan / liter, obviously the decline has exceeded 0.
10 yuan / liter, which means that the latest gasoline and diesel price decline continues to expand, prompting the probability of price adjustment to fall significantly increased
.
If estimated according to the national average price, it is expected that the price of No.
92 gasoline will be reduced by 0.
13 yuan / liter, the price of No.
95 gasoline will fall by 0.
14 yuan / liter, and the price of No.
0 diesel will also be significantly reduced
.
Therefore, if the cumulative decline in oil prices is predicted according to the current oil price, then the owner can spend about 7 yuan less on a full tank of 50 liters of No.
95 gasoline, and this is only the second working day since the current round of pricing statistics cycle, and the preliminary forecast is that the decline will continue to deepen
on the next working day.

In a word, the current domestic oil price forecast decline expanded to 160 yuan / ton, converted into a price increase, it is expected that No.
95 gasoline will fall by 0.
14 yuan / liter, an increase of 85 yuan / ton from the previous working day, and completely exceed the threshold of the red line of price adjustment, therefore, the new round of refined oil price adjustment ushered in at 24 o'clock on January 17, 2023 may show a decline, when the price of No.
92 gasoline and No.
0 diesel may be significantly reduced
.

In terms of overseas markets, international oil prices have recently shown a sharp plunge, WTI New York crude oil, Brent crude oil prices have both fallen sharply, in just two trading days cumulative decline of more than 9.
0%, setting a new record since the new year, and the past period of gains basically all gave up, especially Brent crude oil prices fell below the psychological threshold
of $80 / barrel 。 Of course, behind the sharp drop in international oil prices, it is mainly market concerns about the macroeconomic outlook, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warning that one-third of the world's economies will be hit by recession in 2023, and the world will face a more difficult year than in the past 12 months, because the main engines of global economic growth, including the United States, European and Asian powers, slow
down at the same time.

As a result, international oil prices plunged overnight, and crude oil prices continued to fall sharply in the first and second trading days of 2023, especially on January 4, WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by more than 5.
0%, which shows that the market continues to worry about the outlook for global oil demand and puts obvious pressure on oil prices, and the majority of investors also see this, and the market downturn is stronger, driving international crude oil prices to continue to fall
。

Affected by this, the crude oil change rate on the second working day of China's refined oil pricing cycle reached around -3.
80%, oil prices are expected to further deepen, and overall maintain a downward trend, gasoline and diesel prices per liter fell by more than 0.
10 yuan / liter, car owners and friends to fill a tank of 50 liters of gasoline spend 6 yuan -7 yuan less, and the next price adjustment is expected to usher in a decline
.

To sum up, due to the fear of global recession caused oil prices to fall sharply, international oil prices fell by more than 9.
0% in just two trading days, so the latest domestic oil price forecast decline expanded to 160 yuan / ton, according to the liter price, it is expected that No.
95 gasoline will fall by 0.
14 yuan / liter, which is deeper than the previous working day, coupled with the current market bearish factors, the comprehensive forecast of the next refined oil price adjustment is more likely
.