The fundamentals are still weak and the Shanghai rubber range is oscillating

Night trading: Shanghai rubber RU1801 contract opening price 13865 yuan / ton, the highest price 14050 yuan / ton, the lowest price 13755 yuan / ton, the latest price 13860 yuan / ton; Down 5 yuan / ton, down 0.
04%.

The opening price of the Nippon 1804 contract is 202.
4 yen/kg, the highest price is 202.
7 yen/kg, the lowest price is 198.
6 yen/kg, and the closing price is 198.
6 yen/kg; The trading volume was 3599 lots, and the position volume was 6710 lots
.

Domestic sales area market: Shanghai market, Yunnan 16 years full latex quotation of 11900 yuan / ton; Shandong market, Yunnan 16-year full latex quotation of 11900 yuan / ton; Hengshui market, Yunnan 16-year whole milk quotation 11600 yuan / ton, Yunnan market, 17-year full latex quotation 12200 yuan / ton
.

The warehouse receipts of natural rubber futures in the previous period increased by 3280 tons
compared with yesterday.
The warehouse receipt of natural rubber futures in the last period reported 401070 tons
.
Among them, Shanghai decreased by 100 tons, Yunnan increased by 430 tons, Shandong increased by 1110 tons, Tianjin decreased by 60 tons, and Hainan increased by 1900 tons
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1801 contract was range-bound on Friday, and the night session continued
.
From the 60-minute K-line chart, the K-line is above the 10-day moving average, the support below is strong, and the technical indicator MACD green column continues; On the daily chart, the K-line oscillates near the 5-day moving average, and the technical indicator MACD red bar continues
.
The trading volume has been greatly reduced, the position volume has decreased, and the technical picture is strong
.
The top 20 members held positions, long orders 69380 (+52), short orders 91698 (-665), net short 22318 lots
.

The Shanghai rubber RU1801 contract was range-bound on Friday, and the night session continued
.

Macro information: 1.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 9th showed that in October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.
1% month-on-month and 1.
9% year-on-year; The Industrial Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.
7% month-on-month and 6.
9%
year-on-year.
Industry experts said that the current inflationary pressure is relatively moderate, and monetary policy will remain stable and neutral
.

Industry information: Japan's tire production in January and September increased by 22% month-on-month to 12.
71 million tires, of which passenger tires increased by 23.
1%
month-on-month.
However, tire production decreased by 4.
3% y/y and passenger tire production decreased by 3.
6%.

In the month, Japanese tire sales were 12.
83 million units, although the year-on-year decline was greater than the decline in tire production, but it also increased by 17.
6% month-on-month, and cut sales were better than production
.

As of September, Japanese tire production was 108 million tires, down 1.
4% y/y, and passenger tires were down 2.
2%.

Tire sales were 109 million units, up 0.
2% y/y, while passenger tires decreased by 1.
2%.

Overall, tire sales were better than tire production, driving inventories down, hitting a new low for the year, down 24% year-on-year and 0.
7%
month-on-month.

We believe that the fundamentals of Shanghai rubber are still weak, but the market's continued short selling force has weakened, resulting in a slight increase in the center of gravity at the bottom of the plate
.
Constrained by fundamentals, there will not be much
upside.
You can pay attention to the impact of black production restrictions and macro environment on the rubber market
.
Due to the impact of factors such as the shutdown of synthetic rubber equipment, the price of synthetic rubber has signs of stabilization and strengthening, and La Niña weather may also become a factor in future bullish speculation, which is expected to be range-bound (13200-14200) today
.