The global crude oil supply is still in short supply.

In the early morning of June 17th, the Fed released the negative news of interest rate hike in 2023 after the end of the interest rate meeting.
Crude oil prices fell along with the trend
.
At the same time, from a technical point of view, the weekly crude oil showed a certain trend of deviation .
As a result, the market has a certain divergence regarding the future trend of crude oil prices.
However, after comprehensively considering multiple price influence factors, the author believes that crude oil prices in the second half of the year are still worth looking forward to
.


Demand is still in short supply

.
OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, accounts for 40% of the world’s total crude oil production and 50% of the world’s exports.
If you add Russia, Mexico and other 11 non-OPEC countries in OPEC, the crude oil production accounted for It is more than 60%, and the export volume accounts for more than 70%
.
It can be said that OPEC's decision to cut production has played a leading role in the rebound of crude oil several times in the past year
.
According to the agreement reached in April 2020, from now to April next year, OPEC will still reduce production by 5.
7 million barrels per day
.
In the case of a supply gap in the international crude oil market, OPEC's above decision will continue to be a fundamental factor in the trend of crude oil
.


Judging from the situation in recent months, although the organization increased production by 350,000 barrels in May and June and Saudi Arabia increased production by 600,000 barrels, the overall global crude oil inventory is still rapidly declining, which means that supply is still in short supply.
Exist
.
After entering July, OPEC will increase production by 440,000 barrels and Saudi Arabia will recover 400,000 barrels.
However, WIT and Brent crude oil futures contracts for July-August are generally at a premium of $5-6 per barrel compared with June, which means that the market believes that 7 If the current production increase plan is still maintained after the month, the supply will be even more tight
.
The increase in net imports of US crude oil The   US factor is the biggest variable in the crude oil market in recent years, and it is also the most important factor leading to the crude oil price war .
Due to the serious shortage of capital expenditures caused by the epidemic last year and the Biden administration’s tendency to restrict some offshore oil wells due to environmental considerations, it is difficult for the United States to significantly increase crude oil production during the rest of this year

  
.
Baker Hughes' statistics show that as of June 11, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was only 461, less than half of the same period in 2018 and 2019; and the data released by EIA showed that in the week of June 11, US oilfield crude oil Production was 11.
2 million barrels, down 7% year-on-year; based on weekly data, in the first five months of 2021, U.
S.
crude oil production fell by more than 10%; U.
S.
GDP in the first quarter rose to 6.
4% month-on-month, and the unemployment rate fell in May To 5.
5%, as the economic situation improves, the consumption of crude oil will increase steadily
.
According to statistics, the US's net crude oil imports in May were 3.
21 million barrels per day, the second highest level since September 2019
.
At the same time, the refined oil inventory data released by the US Department of Energy is also a strong evidence
.
As of June 11, gasoline inventories were approximately 243 million barrels, down 5% year-on-year, and kerosene, heating oil, distillate fuel oil and other oil inventories were 223 million barrels, down 16% year-on-year
.


  In addition, summer is the traditional peak season for gasoline and diesel consumption, and July to September this year will be an obvious destocking stage of oil products
.
By then, the United States will not "add blockages" to the crude oil bulls, but is likely to become a "dark horse" in the crude oil consumption market in the second half of the year
.
There is no need to worry about the   issue of Iran’s crude oil supply.
Iran is an important starting point for this year’s crude oil market shorts.
However, from the current situation, Iran insists that the United States should return to the Iran nuclear agreement "no increase or decrease", while the United States domestically The partisan disputes in China are serious, leading to slow progress in the negotiations .
Even if the United States meets Iran's conditions, it will take a long time to fulfill the domestic approval process and resolve the legal obstacles set up during the Trump administration .
According to the latest news on June 17, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there are still "major differences" in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement .
Therefore, it is expected that it will take at least a few months before the parties reach an agreement and lift the Iranian crude oil export ban .
  In addition, even if Iran resumes export, it is not as terrible as imagined.
  
.
According to OPEC data, before Iran was sanctioned, its crude oil production peaked at around 3.
8 million barrels per day, but it has recovered to 2.
5 million barrels per day in May, and the future increment space is 1.
3 million barrels per day
.
Based on experience since 2015, it took Iran about a year and a half to increase from 2.
8 million barrels in the month when the Iran nuclear agreement was reached to 3.
8 million barrels
.
In other words, there is basically no need to worry about Iranian crude oil hitting the market in at least the second half of the year
.


  In addition to the above-mentioned main factors, China and India's crude oil imports in the second half of the year will also likely exceed market expectations
.
The author therefore believes that the crude oil market is still in the destocking cycle in the second half of the year, and the price has more room for imagination, and it is not completely impossible to rise to 90 US dollars per barrel
.