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Since October, natural rubber futures have fluctuated in a narrow range of 13,500 yuan / ton, showing signs of
stopping.
As of Friday, the main contract of Shanghai rubber futures closed at 13330 yuan / ton
.
Analysts believe that the current natural rubber market inventory pressure is not reduced, downstream consumption is stable and rising but overall limited, in the case of supply and demand contradiction is not prominent, it is expected that Shanghai rubber futures will still consolidate at a low level, waiting for direction guidance
.
The main contract of Shanghai rubber has been volatile around 13,500 yuan / ton for nearly three weeks
.
From a fundamental point of view, Jianxin Futures soft commodity researchers Li Jie and Wang Haifeng pointed out that the end of the year is approaching, the rubber industry chain began to reserve inventory in advance for the shutdown period, and the bonded area inventory began to fall and rise.
In terms of synthetic rubber, due to the rumor that the price of butadiene in the Qilu petrochemical plant may reduce the load has risen sharply, the price of cis-butadiene has also increased slightly, which has played a certain supporting role
in the price of tianjiao.
The operating rate of tire factories has risen steadily, and combined with the order situation, it is expected to continue to rise
slightly in the future.
Short-term fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the market lacks guidance
.
In the spot market, on October 27, the spot price of Thai USS3 rubber was 45.
7 baht/kg, down 0.
45 baht/kg; The trading volume of the central market was 6.
7 tons, down 19.
27 tons
from the previous trading day.
On October 26, Cilu Petrochemical reported 12,500 yuan / ton, unchanged
from the previous trading day.
In terms of operating rate, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires rebounded by 4.
15% and 5.
24% month-on-month to 66.
76% and 69.
28% respectively last week, both lower than the same period
in history.
This week, the operating rate of all-steel tires and semi-steel tires of domestic tire factories has rebounded
.
As of October 20, the operating rate of all-steel tires was 66.
76%, up 4.
15% month-on-month; The operating rate of semi-steel tires was 69.
82%, up 5.
24%
month-on-month.
In terms of inventory, as of October 25, the Shanghai Futures Exchange natural rubber warehouse receipts totaled 371,900 tons, an increase of 2,150 tons
from the previous day.
As of October 16, the rubber inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone totaled 19.
89 (+0.
96) million tons, including 12.
21 million tons (-0.
32) tons of natural rubber, 7.
28 (+128) tons of synthetic rubber, and 0.
4 (+0) tons
of compound rubber.
In terms of imports, relevant data show that in September, China imported a total of 661,100 tons of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, an increase of about 34.
78% year-on-year and 17%
month-on-month.
Looking forward to the future market, on the whole, the current steel tire operating rate has rebounded month-on-month, and the environmental impact has slowed down
.
The inventory of Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to grow, suppressing
rubber prices.
At present, the futures price still has room to shrink the spot premium, and the rebound pressure is large, and the short-term may continue the weak shock market
.
