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As China's epidemic eased and Shanghai's gradual opening signal promoted the market expectation that demand will usher in a recovery, overnight external metal futures generally rose, London copper rose more than 1%, and the internal market, also rose, Shanghai copper rose slightly by 0.
7
%.
On the macro front, yesterday, investors worried that the Fed's more aggressive monetary policy measures to fight inflation could hit economic growth
.
This pushed the 10-year Treasury yield lower, while higher crude oil prices had a positive impact
on inflation expectations.
On the supply side, domestic copper mine TC fell back to $79.
28/mt last week, partly as some refineries resumed production
during maintenance.
Meanwhile, Las Bambas has suspended operations for 23 days
in terms of supply disruptions at the mine end.
In addition, the copper concentrate spot market was less active last week, mainly because the uncertainty on the demand side caused by the epidemic is still large
.
According to Mysteel News, copper concentrate stocks in China's seven mainstream ports last week were 745,000 tons, an increase of 21.
7%
over the previous week.
In terms of smelting, the supply of smelters in Jiangsu and Zhejiang around Shanghai continued to arrive last week, coupled with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in Shanghai, driven by the still relatively high smelting profits, the refinery production enthusiasm recovered from the maintenance may be relatively high, but due to the uncertainty of the recovery of demand, the output will not increase too much in the short term
.
In terms of demand, the impact of the current epidemic still exists, and the monthly difference is relatively high, the enthusiasm for downstream receiving goods is relatively low, and the wait-and-see mood is heavier
.
Transactions in Shanghai are still dominated
by trade flows.
In April, the operating rate of the primary processing end showed a sharp decline, and the operating rate of refined copper rod fell sharply by 11.
48% to 54.
68%
in April.
The operating rate of copper pipe enterprises decreased by 7.
78% to 78.
09%.
The copper strip operating rate was also lower than the expected 70.
87%, recording 67.
96%.
And at present, there has not been a significant recovery in terms of terminal demand orders, and the situation may improve slightly in May, but the extent may be limited
.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks fell 0.
05 million tonnes to 176,600 tonnes and SHFE stocks rose 08,100 tonnes to 26,500 tonnes
.
Overall, the current Fed interest rate hike environment is relatively unfavorable for copper prices, and although there are relatively strong expectations on the domestic demand side, whether such strong expectations can be fulfilled is the focus
of the future market.
Unilateral opportunities in operation may be relatively difficult to grasp temporarily, and it is mainly
wait-and-see for the time being.
