The important decision of the Iranian nuclear negotiations will be made this week, the risk of deterioration of the geopolitical situation will increase, and the oil price 100 mark will be sawn.

During the Asian session on Wednesday (February 23), U.
S.
oil is now at $91.
72 / barrel; Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday, and U.
S.
oil once approached the 95 mark; Oil was close to the 100 mark, as high as $99.
50 / barrel, oil oil closed at $96.
50 / barrel on Tuesday, Russia ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, Western countries imposed sanctions on Russia, but because Biden appeared to avoid imposing the toughest sanctions on Russia, and diplomatic mediation on the Iran nuclear deal seemed to be coming to an end, it may slightly ease tensions in global energy markets and limit oil price gains
.

Tip: The US API crude oil inventory movement for the week ending February 18 was announced at 5:30 on Thursday, and the Fed Daly Barkin spoke at 1:00 on Thursday and the Fed Daly spoke
at 4:30.

Factors affecting oil prices

[Russia is sanctioned, the risk of geopolitical deterioration intensifies]

US President Joe Biden said that Russia is beginning to invade Ukraine
.
The new sanctions he announced include sovereign debt
issued by the country's central bank and finance ministry.
Senior U.
S.
officials said they were next prepared to take action
against institutions such as Sberbank and VTB.
For his part, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said he would not meet
with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov as planned this week.

U.
S.
Defense Secretary Austin has ordered some U.
S.
troops in Europe to temporarily move further east to support NATO allies
closer to Russia's borders.

Biden said he would send more (an unknown number) of U.
S.
troops to the Baltics to defend NATO countries; Sanctions will increase if Russia "continues its aggressive actions," and Tuesday's announcement is just the first step
.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged the expansion of its sanctions against Moscow, saying it would target "oligarchs"
who support or benefit from the Russian government.

The U.
S.
sanctions won praise
from Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
He said it was "time to hit the Russian economy and hit it
hard.
" ”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had received a request from the Foreign Ministry to consider severing diplomatic relations
with Russia after Putin ordered Russian troops to enter the Donbas region.

According to Western estimates, more than 150,000 Russian troops are still massed
near the Ukrainian border.
A senior U.
S.
official said Russia is continuing to prepare
for a possible military operation in the coming hours or days.
A key unknown is whether Russian "peacekeepers" will stop at the separatists' line of contact with the Ukrainian military
.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told reporters on Tuesday that "this is not the invasion our allies have been talking about, but it is indeed a very clear escalation of the situation.
"

Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates, said: "There is clearly an additional risk premium injected into the market as Russia enters the sphere of influence of Ukrainian separatists, and this concern premium gradually disappears
.
" ”

In response to the latest escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the United States and Europe announced a limited range of sanctions, Germany took the most severe measures, after Putin decided to send Russian troops to two separatist self-proclaimed republics to "peacekeep", Berlin decided to suspend the certification process
of the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline.

German Chancellor Scholz held a telephone conversation
with Putin Monday night.
He said Putin's recognition of the separatist-controlled republic in Udong had seriously changed the situation, so "it is not possible to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline at this time.
"
Speaking to reporters in Berlin, he told reporters that the gas pipeline from Russia to Germany "cannot be operational"
without certification.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki welcomed the decision, saying the U.
S
.
would impose its own sanctions later Tuesday.
For now, the suspension of Nord Stream 2 appears to be the most severe of the first wave of punitive measures in the West
.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline is a key project of Putin and his personal promotion
.
The decision reflects Germany's determination to bear the economic cost of holding Putin accountable, effectively tearing up years of diplomatic efforts
by Berlin to spearhead peace in Udong.

Brian O'Toole, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who served in the sanctions division of the U.
S.
Treasury Department, said: "While the operation will have an economic impact and represents a further escalation, it will not cause great economic pain, and at this time I am concerned that Putin may think that the West does not have the courage to follow through
.
" ”

[Bank of America expects Brent crude to rise to $120 / barrel]

Bank of America Global Research said on Tuesday that Brent crude prices would jump $5-20 if Russia invades Ukraine, depending on the severity
of the crisis.

The bank said that if the Russia-Ukraine situation eases, Brent crude may fall by $
2-4.
Bank of America expects Brent crude to rise to $120 per barrel by mid-2022, with fundamentals justifying
the recent surge in oil prices.
"If there is a macro backdrop of a weaker dollar and a boost to growth, crude oil prices could approach triple-digit positions in the second half of the year," the bank said, adding that oil prices should be higher and more volatile over the next five years
.
Bank of America expects strong oil demand in 2022, with demand rising another 3.
6 million b/d to nearly 101 million b/d
.
The bank said global oil demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.
6 million b/d
in 2023.
The bank also believes that by 2027, the average price of Brent crude oil needs to reach $60-80 per barrel to maintain the balance of the global oil market
.

Negative factors affecting oil prices

[Iran nuclear talks, important decision on global energy markets, to be made this week]

European and Russian diplomats agree that negotiations on Iran's nuclear program are in their final stages
.
This suggests that if the two sides can agree to resolve their eventual differences, global energy markets may have a respite
.

According to a statement via Twitter from French, Russian and British negotiators in Vienna, the resumption of the Iran nuclear deal is expected to be decided
this week.
A European official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the parties were expected to convene a joint committee meeting later this week where the resolution
would be finalized.

British negotiator Stephanie Al-Qaq tweeted on Tuesday that it was time
to conclude the talks.
Crude oil is approaching $100 a barrel as military tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalate, or bring respite to the oil age if the Iran nuclear deal can be revived
.
Iran has the world's second-largest natural gas reserves and fourth-largest oil reserves, and if the nuclear deal is reached, the country's oil could return to the market
within months.

Iran said the talks had made significant progress, but Tehran still looked to Washington to give economic, legal and political guarantees
that the U.
S.
would not tear up the contract.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian, speaking at Saturday's Munich Security Conference, said concessions were needed
.

On Tuesday, Nigeria's oil minister stuck to OPEC+'s view that more supplies were not needed, saying Iran could increase production
if it resumed its nuclear deal with world powers.

Ed Moya, senior market analyst for Oanda's Americas operations, said, "As tensions in Ukraine continue to rise, betting on higher crude prices has become the favorite deal, but expectations of increased supplies from Iran have somewhat limited oil price gains
.
" ”

[IEA says ready to take action to secure global market supply]

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it was following Russia's statement on Ukraine with "growing concern" and was consulting with member states and key partners on measures to ensure energy security
.
The Paris-based IEA said in a statement on Tuesday that while the impact of developments in Ukraine on world oil markets is unclear, the organization's member states "stand ready to take collective action to ensure that the global oil market is adequately supplied
.
" The IEA said about 250,000 barrels of oil supplied daily by Russia through Ukraine to Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic faced the most immediate risk
.
At the end of December, oil inventories in IEA member countries totalled nearly 4.
16 billion barrels, of which 1.
5 billion barrels were held
by governments as emergency reserves.

[Russian Energy Minister believes that oil prices of $55-70 per barrel are optimal]

According to an interview published Tuesday, Russian Energy Minister Nikolai Shulginov believes oil prices at $55-70 a barrel are "optimal"
for the market.

Shulginov told Energy Information: "Oil prices affect other prices, which means that we will see prices rise
in other sectors of the economy as well due to high oil prices.
" In addition, high oil prices will lead to slower
demand growth.
”

He added that Russia is increasing production
in accordance with quotas stipulated in the agreement reached by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the OPEC+ alliance of allies.
The newspaper quoted him as saying Russia has the ability to further increase oil production, including through new projects
such as Vostok Oil.

"We are considering increasing production and exploration
," he said.
Our 2035 Petroleum Industry Development Plan sets out plans to
increase production and then stabilize production.

UAE Energy Minister Mazroui said on the sidelines of a meeting of gas exporters in the Qatari capital Doha that it is geopolitical factors, not supply and demand, that are driving oil prices, "not a supply and demand issue, but a geopolitical issue
.
" ”

[S&P 500 index fell into correction area, the United States and Western allies announced sanctions against Russia]

U.
S.
stocks fell, and the S&P 500 entered correction territory
.
After Russian President Vladimir Putin recognized the two self-proclaimed republics of Udong and ordered troops to be sent to the region, the United States and allies announced a series of new sanctions
against Russia.
The S&P 500 fell 1 percent on Tuesday and 10 percent from its January high, as investors pondered the damage
that could be caused by sanctions on Russian elites and foreign sovereign debt.

Lori Calvasina of RBC Capital Markets said, "The equity market is right to be concerned about tensions between Russia and Ukraine, which could exacerbate inflation concerns, while many investors and businesses had expected price pressures to ease
in the second half of the year.
" The bad news is how big the potential impact on the Russian-Ukrainian military conflict is, and the investment community seems to be still in the initial exploration stage
.
”

[U.
S.
consumer confidence falls to five-month low]

U.
S.
consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since September in February, as consumer expectations for economic growth and financial prospects slipped
as inflation hit multi-decade highs.

A report released by the Big Business Institute on Tuesday showed that the consumer confidence index fell to 110.
5, after the previous month's data was revised down to 111.
1
.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected 110
.

Americans are experiencing the highest inflation since the early 1980s, with prices rising much faster than wages
.
Russia's conflict with Ukraine could further damage consumer confidence, especially if gasoline prices continue to rise
.
In addition, soaring mortgage rates have added to mortgage pressure
.

The consumer expectations index fell to 87.
5, a five-month low
.
The current condition index rose to 145.
1
.
The World Institute said inflation concerns worsened
in February.
The share of consumers expecting revenue growth over the next six months to fall to its lowest level since January 2021
.
Plans for purchases of cars, homes and appliances also decreased
in February.
The percentage of Americans planning to furlough in the coming months has declined
.

[Russian oil discount expands to largest in years]

As traders nervously focused on the direction of the Ukraine crisis, Russia's benchmark Urals fell to one of
its weakest levels in years.

In a pricing window for S&P Global Platts, Trafigura and Lukoil both sold Urals at $6.
30 a barrel below dated Brent, but did not find a buyer
.
Earlier, Surgutneftgas PJSC sold crude
destined for Europe at $6 a barrel below the price of Dated Brent.

This is the latest example
of a sharp decline in the relative value of Russian oil delivered in Europe.
Traders have been watching closely to see if and what major steps the U.
S.
and its allies will take to restrict Russian oil exports
.

Weak Russian crude prices bucked the trend of the spot oil market, which indicated that the market was in an extreme supply crunch
.

In addition to tensions, Urals crude oil faces a series of market-related headwinds
.
Moreover, the processing of Urals oil is more energy-intensive, which also makes it less attractive for refineries against the backdrop of soaring natural gas prices
.

In the United States, there are already signs that companies are seeking alternatives
to Russian oil.
Separately, Asian traders are said to have begun wary earlier this month of the risk of
being drawn into potential trade sanctions against Russia.
Russia is also on the verge of raising Urals oil exports from western ports to a 23-month high
.

Overall, the positive progress of the Iranian nuclear negotiations limited the rise in oil prices, causing oil prices to fall when they were about to hit the 100 mark; However, the geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is still the main factor dominating the short-term oil price trend, whether Russia further expands its forces, and whether the United States takes more and more serious sanctions against Russia, become the next focus of attention, if the situation is not optimistic, oil prices may still break the 100 integer mark in the short term
.

At 8:18 Beijing time, U.
S.
crude oil is now at $91.
75 per barrel
.