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Trade Service
Shanghai aluminum fell more than 1% yesterday, with the main contract closing at 11445
.
Aluminum fundamentals are weak, electrolytic aluminum production in the early stage is less disturbed, and the recent disturbance of overseas automotive industry has led to continued high inventories, although prices have fallen below costs, but production cuts are small
.
In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to remain weak, and it is difficult for prices to rebound before the industry has a sharp reduction in production.
Supply side: Since late March, the domestic electrolytic aluminum high-cost production capacity has begun to enter the maintenance and production reduction cycle, the current domestic production reduction scale of 400,000-500,000 tons / year, quantitative change has not yet caused qualitative change, the stage rebound is highly limited
.
If aluminum prices hover at a low level for a long time, the scale of upstream smelting capacity reduction may continue to expand
.
Demand: The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing enterprises continues to increase, but the overseas epidemic continues to spread, and export orders have declined
significantly.
Customs data show that from January to February, aluminum strip, aluminum profile, aluminum foil, etc.
all declined
year-on-year.
At this stage, the overseas epidemic situation is grim, and it is expected that aluminum exports will be affected
from March to April.
In terms of inventory: the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum accumulation in the past two weeks has narrowed significantly, first, domestic consumption has recovered in an orderly manner; Second, the price difference of primary aluminum scrap has widened, and recycled aluminum enterprises choose to purchase primary aluminum to reduce costs; Third, the storage capacity in some areas is close to the upper limit, and the inventory in transit and factories has increased
.
It can be seen that it is premature
to restart the destocking cycle.
Industry News:
1.
On March 31, affected by the decline in demand, the price of Australian alumina fell to 252 US dollars / ton
.
According to reports, a shipment of 30,000 tonnes of Western Australian alumina traded at $245/ton (Burbury/Kuwait Harbor FOB price) will be shipped
in the second half of May after five working days of receiving the shipping documents in full spot foreign exchange transactions.
2.
On March 29, Alcircle reported that the Vedanta alumina refinery in Lanjigarh is still operating while all precautions
are in place against COVID-19, following the recommendations of local government and health authorities.
At the same time, in response to the epidemic and safety, the factory has reduced the number of
workers while maintaining active operations.
Considering that aluminum, as a national strategic metal and the second most important metal in the world, has a decisive importance
in power, aerospace, defense, and construction.
As India's largest aluminium producer, Vedanta said it was necessary to maintain operations
.
Summary: At present, the number of overseas epidemic diagnoses has risen sharply, the macro bearish atmosphere has not changed, and aluminum prices continue to be suppressed
by market pessimism.
Before the overseas epidemic is effectively controlled, Shanghai aluminum is prone to fall and rise, and there is a possibility
that it will continue to dip downward.
The market continued to pay attention to the introduction of
government incentive policies.
