The macro situation is still unstable Shanghai aluminum may be difficult to continue its rally in the near future

At the beginning of the week, after the Fed's interest rate hike temperature dissipated, the market returned to rationality, Shanghai aluminum once fell below 18,000, but in the middle of the week due to the tension in the Taiwan Strait and the intensification of the European energy crisis, supply concerns superimposed on the entry of capital again pushed up aluminum prices to a high level, the main force up to test the 18,800 mark, but from the current domestic basics, the weakness of supply and demand does not support the price too fast to rise, the recent Shanghai aluminum or will again out of the high downward trend, the upper pressure level needs to see 19,000.

At present, the transaction volume of the spot market is still relatively light, even if the price is at a low level, but due to insufficient orders, the willingness of manufacturers to order is not strong, and the second half of the week is mainly wait-and-see, and the trading volume is stable
compared with the previous week.

East China: The wave of interest rate hikes is still not over, the Bank of England exceeded expectations to raise interest rates by 50 basis points to promote the decline of the US index, releasing the pressure on non-ferrous metals, aluminum prices in the second half of the week again ushered in a rush, and continued to test the 19,000 pressure level; however, spot price fluctuations are limited, compared with last week Friday still maintain a small decline, as of Friday, East China spot aluminum prices between 18500-18540 yuan / ton, still down 100 yuan / ton
from last Friday.

South China: As of Friday, the price of Foshan Nanhai aluminum ingot tickets was between 18640-18740 yuan / ton, down 120 yuan / ton from last Friday; At present, the price difference of spot aluminum ingots in East China and South China has narrowed to less than 200 yuan / ton; The current market situation in South China is quite different from that in East China, and the performance of scrap aluminum in the market is extremely scarce, while the spot supply is sufficient, and even the local inventory has a small sign
of accumulation.

The recent macro situation is still unstable, and the rising factors are mostly hot speculation, so after the news is digested, it may be difficult for Shanghai aluminum to continue the rally again, you can pay attention to the guidance of the US non-farm payrolls data
.
Next week, aluminum prices may show a trend of rushing back down, or fluctuating
in the range of 1.
8-18,800.