The main contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, and the short-term market may be repeated

Market focus: (1) National Development and Reform Commission: It will make full use of all necessary means stipulated in the Price Law to study specific measures to intervene in coal prices, promote coal prices to return to a reasonable range, promote the coal market to return to rationality, ensure energy security and stable supply, and ensure that the people are warm through the winter
.
(2) Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should start tapering asset purchases after the November meeting; Support the end of the tapering program in mid-2022 in order to raise interest rates
if necessary.

Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 23100-23140 yuan / ton, the average price was 23120 yuan / ton, down 1120 yuan
from the previous trading day.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 12,306 tons, with a daily increase of 1,221 tons; LME aluminum stocks were 1,098,300 tons, a daily decrease of 4,975 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions in the main 2111 contract of Shanghai aluminum held 76239 lots, minus 13300 lots per day, short positions 84730 lots, daily minus 20642 lots, net short positions 8491 lots, daily minus 4141 lots, long short and net short both reduced
.

Market research: Fed officials issued hawkish remarks, and the dollar index stopped falling and rebounded
.
Under the background of overseas energy crisis, the continuous shortage of electricity and the tight supply of the global aluminum market have formed a strong support
for aluminum prices.
However, domestic inventories are still accumulating, and downstream operating rates have continued to decline, causing the market to worry
about weaker consumption.
At the same time, the National Development and Reform Commission issued three documents in a row, studying the intervention of coal prices in accordance with the law, and the logic of aluminum price cost support has been weakened, and short-term aluminum prices are under obvious pressure
.
Short-term market may have repetition
.