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On Wednesday, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, with the highest 14620 yuan / ton and the lowest 14345 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 14345 yuan / ton, down 1.
24% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In terms of external trading, LME aluminum continued to decline, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1772 US dollars / ton, down 0.
39%
on a daily basis.
Market Focus: (1) Powell continued to express cautious optimism about the economy, but stressed that all available tools would be used if necessary, and believed that economic activity and the job market are recovering steadily, but further cuts to the impact
on the economy are needed.
(2) British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivered a speech in parliament announcing a tighter restriction policy in response to the recent worsening of the new crown epidemic, which may last for six months
.
(3) China's bauxite output in August 2020 was about 6.
68 million tons, an increase of 0.
75% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 1%; The output from January to August was 49.
9 million tons, down 14.
17%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On September 23, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14540-14580 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14560 yuan / ton, down 190 yuan / ton
per day.
Traders mainly ship, traders just need to purchase, downstream procurement has not improved, supply and demand trading is acceptable
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 104104 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 2,916 tons, a 7-day decline; On September 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1493175 tons, a daily decrease of 5,925 tons, a 24-day
decline.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2010 contracts are 70872 lots, a daily increase of 1221 lots, short positions are 75792 lots, a daily decrease of 4895 lots, a net short position of 4920 lots, a daily decrease of 6116 lots, more short increases, and a decrease
in net space.
Market research and judgment: On September 23, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2010 fell
sharply.
The increasing domestic production of alumina and the high level of port inventories have led to weak alumina prices; The high profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has stimulated the gradual release of smelter capacity, coupled with a slight decline in domestic aluminum production month-on-month, limiting the upward momentum
of aluminum prices.
However, market demand has performed well, and the current import window is in a preliminary closing state, and domestic inventories have fallen sharply recently; At the same time, the downstream aluminum rod warehouse continues to degrade, currently reaching a low level in the year, and there is an expectation of recovery in future market demand, which is expected to drive the operating rate of aluminum enterprises to rebound, which has strong
support for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2010 contract of Shanghai aluminum reduced its position and fell, focusing on the important support of 14200, and it is expected that the short-term range will be adjusted
.
