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On Tuesday, the main 2112 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell sharply, with the highest 19370 yuan / ton, the lowest 18615 yuan / ton, closing at 18680 yuan, down 3.
79% from the previous trading day's closing price; LME aluminum fell in shock, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $2624 / ton, down 0.
24%
from the previous trading day.
Market focus: (1) China's industrial added value above designated size in October increased by 3.
5% year-on-year, 3% expected, and 3.
1%
in the previous month.
From January to October, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 10.
9% year-on-year, and the average growth rate for two years was 6.
3%.
Among them, the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in October fell by 12.
8%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: SMM spot A00 aluminum reported 18920-18960 yuan / ton, the average price was 18940 yuan / ton, down 250 yuan
from the previous trading day.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the holders generally shipped at a high price, the receiver stocked a small amount, the trading activity became weaker, and the overall trading volume was better than the previous day
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipt 199939 tons, daily increase of 4548 tons; LME aluminum stocks were 968,450 tons, a daily decrease of 6,250 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2112 contract held 82763 lots, -9045 lots, short positions 86830 lots, -7776 lots, net short positions 4067 lots, +1133 lots, long and short reduction, net short increase
.
Market research and judgment: Affected by inflation concerns and monetary policy expectations, the US dollar has performed strongly in recent times
.
Under the influence of the dual-control policy, electrolytic aluminum production capacity continued to be limited, and the daily output of primary aluminum declined for 6 consecutive months, but the monthly output increased month-on-month, ending the five-consecutive decline, and some power relief areas have a certain probability of resuming production, but it is difficult to release
on a large scale in the short term.
At the same time, the latest data show that electrolytic aluminum has accumulated again, and the trend of coal is weak, the atmosphere of industrial products is pessimistic again, the performance of aluminum inventories on the two major exchanges is differentiated, and the weekly inventory of Shanghai aluminum continues to increase to a five-month high, and the pressure above the aluminum price is obvious, and the short-term aluminum price or weak shock is dominant
.
Technically, the daily level remains weak, focusing on moving average support
.
