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As of Friday's afternoon close, the main 2203 contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21430, down 0.
28%; Approaching the Spring Festival, downstream terminals have been on holiday, off-season effect gradually appeared, electrolytic aluminum ushered in a short-term accumulation inflection point, need to be vigilant against the demand for risk aversion caused by the aluminum price correction caused by the exit of bulls
.
On the macro front, the central bank's LPR rate was 3.
7% in 1-year, down 10 basis points; More than 5 years was 4.
60%, down 5 basis points
.
This is the first downward revision
of the 5-year LPR in 21 months.
Money markets expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at a time, which would be the biggest move since 2020; US President Joe Biden: It is now necessary for the Fed to properly calibrate supportive policy in order to fight inflation
.
ECB December monetary policy meeting minutes: Inflation cannot be ruled out for a longer period of time, concern
about premature tightening.
In terms of news, European natural gas prices have risen sharply, Hydro, Alcoa and other European aluminum plants have begun to reduce production, French Dunkirk aluminum plant due to the electricity price does not reduce the release of production reduction signals, production reduction expectations still exist, production reduction makes the European spot aluminum premium soar.
The pressure of power rationing in Yunnan, Guizhou, Guangxi and Inner Mongolia has eased, and the power rationing capacity has partially resumed production
.
Shandong alumina due to the Winter Olympics production restrictions, alumina supply shortage, price rapid rise, market expectations on electrolytic aluminum production has little
impact.
In terms of inventory, the domestic aluminum ingot social library turned into an accumulation warehouse, and the Nanhai, Hangzhou and Gongyi regions contributed mainly to the accumulation of stock
.
It is necessary to pay attention to the accumulation range
during the Spring Festival.
Short-term spot market supply and demand is tight, spot premium is still strong, inventory change level is low, coupled with the recent domestic easing policy support, the price trend is strong, but near the Spring Festival, downstream demand stops, inventory has entered the accumulation stage, spot face is expected to weaken, chase more attention to risks; In the medium and long term, due to the overall low level of domestic and foreign inventories, overseas production reductions, and the expectation of the peak season in the first half of the year, it is difficult for domestic production to make up for the gap, and the medium and long-term trend support is significant
.
