The main force of Shanghai copper is expected to stabilize and fluctuate in the short term

Market focus: (1) A number of Fed officials, including the president of the Atlanta Fed and the president of the Dallas Fed, predicted that the US economy can recover strongly in the second half of the year, and it is possible
to reduce the scale of bond purchases in 2021.
(2) Mysteel data, China's electrolytic copper spot inventory on January 11 was 168,300 tons, an increase of 015000 tons
from January 8.
On January 11, the stock of electrolytic copper in China's bonded zone was 459,500 tons, an increase of 01,000 from
January 8.

Spot analysis: On January 12, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 58150-58330 yuan / ton, with an average price of 58240 yuan / ton, down 1250 yuan / ton
per day.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported, traders mainly wait-and-see, downstream bargain hunting, transaction slightly improved
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 26,019 tons on Tuesday, a daily decrease of 875 tons, a 7-day decline; On January 11, LME copper stocks stood at 104,950 tonnes, up 2,525 tonnes
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2103 contract were 67334 lots, a daily increase of 4818 lots, short positions of 70897 lots, a daily increase of 2424 lots, a net short position of 3563 lots, a daily decrease of 2394 lots, both long and short increases, and the net space decreased
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2103 rebounded
on January 12.
A number of Fed officials predict that the US economy will recover strongly in the second half of the year, and the scale of bond purchases built in 2021 is possible, which will support the US dollar; However, optimistic expectations for economic growth have eased market concerns
about the global epidemic.
Recently, the volume of copper mine arrivals has declined, domestic copper mine inventories have fallen to a low level, copper ore processing fees TC have continued to decline, and copper smelting costs are high; However, the implementation of the new policy for scrap copper has greatly increased the import volume, and the price difference between refined waste has widened, and the substitution role will gradually increase; At the end of the year, the downstream market demand gradually weakened, and the domestic copper inventory showed a slight recovery trend from the low, and the upward momentum of copper prices weakened
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2103 contract increased significantly, and there was support at the previous low, and it is expected to stabilize and fluctuate
in the short term.