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On Thursday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and fluctuated, with the highest 52100 yuan / ton in the day, the lowest 51360 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 51970 yuan / ton, down 0.
84% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rebounded, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6489 US dollars / ton, up 0.
19%
per day.
Market focus: (1) US President Trump threatened that he would not rule out ordering the closure of more Chinese diplomatic missions
in the United States.
(2) WBMS data shows that the global copper market has a supply shortage of 18,000 tons from January to May 2020, and a supply gap of 02,400 tons
from January to April.
Spot analysis: On July 23, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 51680-52050 yuan / ton, with an average price of 51865 yuan / ton, down 735 yuan / ton
per day.
After the copper price recovered, some downstream bargain hunting replenishment, traders are mostly long-term single users, mainly at low price transactions, the premium temporarily stabilized
when the market pullback.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 60,240 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 2,375 tons; On July 22, LME copper stocks were 145,050 tons, down 1,250 tons per day, and fell for 26 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts are 76876 lots, minus 332 lots per day, short positions are 77170 lots, daily minus 3022 lots, net short positions are 294 lots, daily minus 2690 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2009 opened low on July 23
.
The United States asked China to close the consulate in Houston, tensions between China and the United States have further deteriorated, reaching the freezing point since the outbreak of the new crown, and the market's concerns about the future trade situation between the two countries have intensified; And the domestic downstream demand has weakened, and there is a fear of heights in the downstream, limiting the upward momentum
of copper prices.
However, macro policies remain accommodative and the economy is gradually recovering, and the dollar index continues to come under pressure; In addition, the supply disturbance of copper mines in South America is still continuing, and the tight situation of raw materials continues to lead to smelting production being suppressed, and inventories in both markets have declined recently, and copper price support remains
.
In terms of spot, the outflow of goods continued to increase, and the downstream returned to the state
of waiting and seeing.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2009 contract closed above the 10-day moving average, and the mainstream short position reduction was large, and the short-term shock was expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long around 51950 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 51650 yuan / ton
.
