The main force of Shanghai copper opens high and oscillates There is resistance above

Market focus: (1) The US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in June was 57.
1, the highest since February, higher than the previous value of 45.
4 and the expected value
of 50.
(2) U.
S.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Congress would pass the last anti-epidemic assistance package
later in July.
(3) China's ninth batch of restricted category publicity in 2020, of which the approved import volume of copper scrap and crush is 176746 tons, and a total of 718,500 tons
of import quotas have been issued so far this year.

Spot analysis: On July 7, the spot 1# electrolytic copper quotation was 49580-49650 yuan / ton, the average price was 49615 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 500 yuan / ton
.
Constantly hitting new high copper prices has suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to purchase, and they generally maintain the adoption of on-demand procurement and are reluctant to increase inventory
.
In addition, the downstream prefers low-priced non-standard and wet copper, which is one of
the reasons why the trading of flat water copper is inactive.
Finally, it is understood that there will still be imported copper arrivals in the next few days, and the inventory is prone to rise and fall, and the premium may remain low and volatile
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 39,962 tons on Tuesday, a daily increase of 976 tons; On July 6, LME copper stocks were 197,850 tons, a daily decrease of 8,525 tons, a decline of 14 consecutive days
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2008 contract were 73615 lots, minus 1038 lots per day, short positions were 77456 lots, daily minus 2505 lots, net short positions were 3841 lots, daily minus 1467 lots, long and short were reduced, net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2008 opened high on July 7
.
Recently, the economic data released by the United States and Europe is good, and the economic recovery expectation has boosted market optimism; At the same time, the supply of upstream copper mines is tightening, copper ore processing fees TC maintain a low level of 51 US dollars / ton, and the compression of smelting profits limits the production of refined copper, which supports copper prices
.
However, downstream demand has weakened recently, domestic copper rod processing fees have been significantly reduced, and Shanghai copper inventories have rebounded; In addition, the price difference of refined waste widened to 2,000 yuan / ton, and the import quota of scrap copper was sufficient, which increased the pressure on copper prices
.
In terms of spot, the continuous record high copper price has suppressed the enthusiasm of downstream manufacturers to purchase, and it generally maintains the adoption of on-demand procurement and is reluctant to increase inventory
.
Technically, the mainstream short position reduction of the Shanghai copper 2008 contract is large, and there is resistance above the 49500 position, and the short-term shock adjustment
is expected.
In terms of operation, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2008 contract can operate in the range of 49000-49500 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 150 yuan / ton
each.