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On Monday, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai copper opened low and went high, with the highest 42630 yuan / ton and the lowest 42010 yuan / ton within the day, and the closing price was 42330 yuan / ton, up 0.
12% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper rushed back to the high, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 5228.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
36%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The 1-year LPR of the People's Bank of China reported 3.
85%, down 20 bp from the previous time; LPR over 5 years was reported at 4.
65%, down 10 bp
from the previous time.
(2) In March 2020, China's output of ten non-ferrous metals was 4.
83 million tons, an increase of 1.
6% year-on-year; The total output from January to March was 14.
17 million tons, an increase of 2.
1%
year-on-year.
(3) Glencore hopes to restart Mopani copper this week, and in fiscal 2020, the company is expected to produce 50,000 to 70,000
tons of copper.
Spot analysis: On April 20, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 42520-42780 yuan / ton, with an average price of 42650 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 185 yuan / ton
.
SMM reported that the inventory returned over the weekend did not increase, but continued to decrease sharply, the Guangdong spot market continued the recent shortage of goods, holders generally shipped at high prices, and there were not many holders with first-hand sources, so there was a quotation late today, and the price was higher
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 158009 tons on Monday, a daily decrease of 3,559 tons, a drop of 23 consecutive days; On April 17, LME copper stocks were 265425 tonnes, up 4,600 tonnes
per day.
As of the week of April 17, the Shanghai copper inventory in the previous period was reported 303366 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,562 tons, a decline of five consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2006 contract are 71319 lots, an increase of 648 lots per day, 84785 short positions, a daily increase of 463 lots, a net short position of 13466 lots, a daily decrease of 185 lots, long and short increases, and net space decreases
.
The People's Bank of China once again lowered the loan market quotation rate, which is conducive to improving market sentiment; In addition, the impact of copper mine production reduction in South America gradually appeared, and the processing fee TC declined; As well as the improvement in demand due to the recovery of production of downstream processing enterprises, Shanghai copper inventories have continued to fall recently, and copper prices have performed strongly
.
However, the current overseas epidemic has led to a decline in export orders, coupled with the continuous widening of the refined waste price spread, which will limit the upward momentum
of copper prices.
In terms of spot, the inventory returned over the weekend continued to decrease sharply, and the Guangdong spot market continued the recent shortage of stock, and holders generally shipped at high prices
.
Technically, the main 2006 contract of Shanghai copper focuses on the 10-day moving average support, which is expected to test the 43,000 mark, and the short-term shock is expected to be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 2006 contract can be long around 42,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 41,500 yuan / ton
.
