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On Monday, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai copper rushed high and fluctuated, with the highest 57790 yuan / ton during the day, the lowest 56060 yuan / ton, and the closing price of 57680 yuan / ton, up 2.
78% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at $7663 / ton, up 2.
10%
on a daily basis.
Market focus: (1) China's manufacturing PMI in November rose 0.
7 percentage points from the previous month to 52.
1, better than the expected 51.
6, hitting a new high since October 2017, indicating that the pace of China's economic recovery has accelerated
.
(2) According to Mysteel data, China's spot inventory of electrolytic copper on November 27 was 184,000 tons, down 06,900 tons from November 23, falling for nine consecutive weeks, reaching a new low
since January.
Spot analysis: On November 30, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 57000-57660 yuan / ton, with an average price of 57330 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 1690 yuan / ton
.
The willingness of the receiver to reduce the price is strong, and the downstream just needs to purchase, and the overall trading is
deadlocked.
Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts on Monday was 30,653 tons, a daily decrease of 499 tons, a continuous decline of 10 days; On November 27, LME copper stocks were 150775 tons, down 1,250 tons per day, falling for 17 consecutive days
.
As of the week of November 27, the previous Shanghai copper inventory reported 92,912 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,854 tons, a decline for six consecutive weeks
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2101 contract are 91633 lots, minus 6135 lots per day, short positions are 95553 lots, daily minus 2857 lots, net short positions are 3920 lots, daily increase is 3278 lots, long and short are reduced, net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2101 rushed high and fluctuated
on November 30.
The positive news for vaccines reinforced optimistic expectations for a global economic rebound and the Federal Reserve is expected to extend its purchases of longer-term Treasury bonds at its next meeting, extending the weakness
of the dollar index.
The supply of upstream copper mines remained tight, copper ore processing fees TC remained low, and smelter production costs were high; The recent improvement in downstream demand in the copper market has driven the continuous dematerialization of inventories, and the current Shanghai copper inventory has reached a low level in nearly six years, and copper prices have performed
strongly.
However, domestic smelting production is showing an upward trend, coupled with the recent rise in copper prices, downstream procurement fear of heights has increased, and the upward trend of copper prices may slow down
.
Technically, the Shanghai copper 2101 contract reduced its position to the upside, and the mainstream bulls reduced their positions on the sidelines, and it is expected to be strong in the short term
.
