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Futures market: as of 8.
11, the main force of PVC closed at 6679 yuan / ton, down 0.
22% from the previous month; Top 20 main long positions: 228788 (-7193), short positions: 243336 (-5519), net short positions: 14548 (-198).
As of 8.
11, the US CPI index in July increased by 8.
5% year-on-year, slowing down from the previous month's growth rate of 9.
1%, but still a nearly 40-year high
.
Although the US CPI growth rate slowed down in July, and the market lowered its expectations for the Fed's interest rate hike in September, the "unacceptably high" inflation rate will not change the path
of the Fed's interest rate hike.
Intraday PVC prices are weak and volatile, the fundamentals have not changed much, excessive social inventory and weak demand have formed a certain drag
on the current price of PVC.
Spot: as of 8.
11 East China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6600 yuan / ton (-50); South China (calcium carbide method) quotation: 6690 yuan / ton (-25); Ningxia Jinyuyuan PVC plant started normally, the quotation was stable, and the 5-type calcium carbide acceptance factory was 6400-6450 yuan / ton; Shandong Dongyue's 120,000-ton PVC plant is currently about 50%, the price is stable, and the 5-type factory report is 6550 yuan / ton in cash
.
Basis: East China basis -79 yuan / ton as of 8.
11 days; South China basis +11 yuan/ton; Slightly weaker
than the previous day.
Blue charcoal: As of 8.
11, Shaanxi quoted 1240 yuan / ton, no price change
from the previous day.
calcium carbide: As of 8.
11, North China quoted 4540 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton
from the previous day.
At present, the fundamentals of the PVC market have not changed significantly, and high inventories and sluggish demand still put some pressure
on price operation.
The early rebound is mainly driven by the phased easing of the macro surface, superimposed on the support of raw materials to prices
.
However, overseas recession expectations still exist, and the path of interest rate hikes will not change, resulting in the current PVC as a whole has no substantial benefit
.
In summary, the PVC futures September contract may be slightly "chicken ribs", while the 01 contract can better reflect supply and demand expectations
.
In the later stage, the focus is on the peripheral economic environment and the implementation of various domestic stable economic policies, and for the time being, we maintain a cautious view on the trend of PVC and maintain a wait-and-see
view.
