The market bearish atmosphere is strong, and the aluminum market is under pressure and weakened

On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum shock operation closed the black line, the market trading was active, stimulated by the news of the peripheral interest rate hike, the bearish atmosphere was strong, and the market had a certain panic
.
Recently, Shanghai aluminum has been led by fundamentals, paying attention to the fermentation of repeated pledge news of fundamental warehouse receipts, or forming a negative
impact on the market.
The epidemic has affected peripheral energy and high inflation, and the Fed and European interest rate hikes are expected to continue, and global commodities are under pressure, it is recommended to pay attention to the short-term pressure level above 20050
.

Severe coal shortages in India recently, severe drought in Brazil has led to the collapse of local hydroelectric power generation, global energy shortages continue to push up U.
S.
oil prices, and European and American natural gas futures have reached new highs
.
In addition, affected by the previous overseas alumina plant accident, the price of two alumina transactions in Western Australia rose to more than 470 US dollars / ton in early October, which was 5% higher than before the holiday, approaching a new high
in the year.

Fundamentally, the supply side continues to increase power rationing and production and dual control of energy consumption in China, which continues to interfere with the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, and does not rule out the possibility
of increasing the scope of post-term electricity.
Before the holiday on the consumer side, the holders actively shipped and realized the goods, and the receivers pressed the price and waited and watched, and the overall transaction activity continued to decline
.
Pre-holiday inventory data show that domestic aluminum ingot social treasury has accumulated to a certain extent, and overseas destocking trend was maintained during the National Day period, falling by 39,900 tons to 1,198,400 tons
.

In the market, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated in the morning, and as of the midday close, the main contract fell 65 yuan / ton, down 0.
33%.

Holders reported a discount to the 07 contract by 20 yuan / ton, the average spot price of aluminum ingots fell slightly, and the average price of holders in the East China market reported an average price of +10~+20 yuan / ton on the Internet
.
The enthusiasm of large households to receive goods within the day is general, and the receiving price in the East China market is around 19720 yuan / ton
.
Overall, the market trading performance is average
.

The Fed's interest rate hike has landed, there is no need to panic excessively, the national epidemic has been controlled, domestic consumption has begun to recover, the downstream operating rate has increased, and the current aluminum ingot social inventory continues to destock.

Overseas energy prices have soared again, and Australia is also facing an energy crisis, with strong cost support
.
Aluminum prices once again touched the support position of 19,500 yuan / ton, the current aluminum price test cost support and consumption recovery strength, should not blindly chase short, radicals can try short-term long positions
lightly.
In the medium term, overseas interest rate hikes and consumption peaks and declines need attention, and short orders
can be considered after commodities soar.