The market consumption season is expected to be good, and the downside of copper prices is limited

In the week of September 23, the trend of domestic spot copper prices remained stable
.
According to data from Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal Network, the average price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 63374 yuan / ton, up 40 yuan / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 63445 yuan / ton, down 71 yuan / ton from last week, a cumulative decline of 0.
11%.

The average price of Guangdong spot 1# copper was 63154 yuan / ton, up 56 yuan / ton per day, compared with 63280 yuan / ton in the previous week, down 126 yuan / ton from last week, a cumulative decline of 0.
20%.

Copper imports eased slightly during the week, but overall inventories remained tight
.
Cargo holders are obviously holding prices, downstream enterprises are afraid of heights and cautious wait-and-see, failed to release the demand for pre-holiday stocking, and a few entered the market to buy
at low prices.
At present, the market still has some expectations for the peak season of gold nine silver and ten peak seasons and the stocking before the National Day, but the buying order is in a state of chasing low and not buying high, and under the suppression of high premium, the overall trading volume is difficult to reflect
a lot.

In terms of stocks, London copper stocks climbed sharply last week, accumulating an increase of 22,725 tons to 124725 tons, an increase of 22.
28%.

Shanghai copper inventories continued to rise slightly last week, accumulating an increase of 1,032 tons to 36,897 tons, up 2.
88%
from the previous week.

On the demand side, the operating rate of downstream enterprises has declined overall, and there is certain pressure
on consumption.
In particular, the performance of the real estate sector is quite unsatisfactory, because real estate is the main consumer of metals, and weak data does not pull copper strongly
.
However, the domestic power grid and new energy demand are good, which greatly drives copper consumption
.
In addition, the market still has good expectations for the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, and the relevant support policies for the superimposed terminal are relatively clear, so consumer demand is still good
.

On the supply side, overseas mine disturbances are frequent, Chilean copper mine production fell significantly year-on-year, and Peruvian production returned to the downward
trend in July.
Domestic smelting in August affected by the epidemic and power cuts, refined copper production was lower than expected at the beginning of the month, but according to data from the Bureau of Statistics, China's refined copper production in August increased by 3.
9% year-on-year, copper production increased by 7.
3% year-on-year, and the impact of this month's power cuts on the supply side basically faded, and the supply side was expected to increase, but the increase was very limited
.
Moreover, spot stocks are still tight and imported copper supplements are limited
.

On the macro front, better-than-expected domestic August data brought a ray of sunshine to the global economic market, and investors expected China's loose monetary and fiscal policies to have a positive impact
on the final demand for supplying the metal.
In addition, Shanghai announced 1.
8 trillion yuan of investment in infrastructure projects to boost economic growth
.
Infrastructure construction usually consumes large amounts of metals
.
Therefore, the downside of copper prices is limited, and it is expected to usher in another
upward trend.