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On January 28, Shanghai copper was weak and volatile during the day, closing slightly down 0.
31%, and the futures price still hovered around
the 70,000 line.
The dollar index has strengthened sharply, domestic inventories are expected to accumulate, and it is difficult for futures prices to perform
brightly.
On the macro front, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates in March continues to increase, and Powell also said that he does not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates at every meeting, and will start reducing the balance sheet at an appropriate time after the
rate hike.
Luga's US Q4 GDP was significantly higher than market expectations, and the dollar index continued to rise, rising to its highest
level since July 2020.
Jinyuan Futures said that after the hawkish speech that exceeded expectations, the market's expectations of monetary tightening of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction strengthened, and copper prices also fell
sharply.
On the news front, the Chilean Copper Council on Thursday kept its 2022 copper price forecast unchanged at $3.
95 a pound as prices tend to fall
modestly after last year's rally.
The committee also forecasts Chile's copper production to be 5.
7 million mt in 2022, up 2.
6%
year-on-year.
Chile's copper production is expected to increase by 4.
8% to 6 million tonnes
in 2023.
The market is generally optimistic about the repair of the supply side in 2022, and the background of the bull market in the past two years is tight supply and demand, and inventories continue to deteriorate, and this support will be significantly weakened
in 2022.
In terms of inventories, LME copper stocks have fallen for four consecutive days and are now falling to 91,350 tons, but the inventory level has still risen from the end of last year, and the recent decline in registered warehouse receipts has also been declining, and the proportion of cancellations has recovered slightly compared with the previous period, but has slowed down
again in recent days.
At present, domestic and overseas synchronous accumulation, there is no BACK worry about domestic near-term contracts, the premium is also weakening with the seasonal off-season, the concentration margin of overseas near-delivery warehouse receipts is reduced, and copper forced positions are less likely than popular varieties such as tin and nickel
.
As the domestic holiday approaches, the demand side is light, and the exchange is seasonally accumulating
.
Short-term copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, and the main range of Shanghai copper is 7-71,000, and the operation remains on the sidelines
.
