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On Friday, the morning Shanghai aluminum 1705 contract opened at 14010 yuan / ton, the opening continued the overnight decline, tested down 13965 yuan / ton, then the bulls actively increased their positions, short positions, aluminum prices rose to the 5/10/50 daily moving average sticky platform, in this platform narrow range shock game, in the afternoon Xu Shaoshi's capacity reduction plan has been determined to trigger bears continue to flee, aluminum broke through the multi-day moving average platform, the center of gravity all the way up, the high touched 14255 yuan / ton, closed at 14235 yuan / ton
。 Shanghai aluminum presents a super long lower shadow, short short-term operation-based, insufficient kinetic energy, limited downward pressure space, the following 5/10/20 daily moving average sticking to form support, the domestic two sessions officially kicked off, the market waits for the two sessions to release the signal, long and short are more cautious, it is expected that Shanghai aluminum short-term maintenance high volatility
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1904 US dollars / ton, Asian market noon London aluminum repair part of the decline, rose to 1911 US dollars / ton blocked slightly down, the afternoon dollar has fallen, Lun aluminum rose sharply, the high touch 1920 US dollars / ton, into the European and American session, Lun aluminum failed to continue to rise, rushed back down to the daily average near the oscillation, as of 17:55, Lun aluminum recorded 1916 US dollars / ton, the latest release of the United States February ISM non-manufacturing PMI, Lun aluminum or will fall into the 5-10 day moving average range shock
。
In terms of macro, this week a number of Fed senior officials intensively released interest rate hike signals, the market expects the probability of Fed interest rate hikes in March to reach 90%, the US dollar index remains strong, base metals trend under pressure, previously, the domestic two sessions are about to kick off or reveal the economic goals of the year, the market maintains a cautious wait-and-see, it is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend is weak
.
In the market, aluminum rose slightly before
noon.
Shanghai transaction concentration is 13680-13690 yuan / ton, the discount for the month is 190-180 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration is 13670-13690 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration is 13700-13720 yuan / ton
。 Futures aluminum fell overnight in the past month caused the spot price to continue to fall, traders will the previous day's spot goods sold away for cash willingness positive, coupled with smelter stable shipments, the market circulation supply is very sufficient, the demand for goods from the actual production needs of downstream enterprises, spot prices fell, downstream enterprises willingness to receive goods slightly increased compared with the previous day, the volume increased slightly, but the overall oversupply pattern is difficult to change, inventory digestion is difficult
.
Aluminum rose sharply in the afternoon of the month, and the price of the holder followed the market, the transaction price rose to 13790-13810 yuan / ton, and the spot discount expanded slightly to around 200 yuan / ton, and a small number of transactions
.
In the short term, the momentum of aluminum price rise is lacking, after all, the current pressure of aluminum ingot inventory is still large, and the profit taking of funds after the sharp rise in aluminum prices drags the price down and the market trading sentiment is suppressed
.
The real impact of electrolytic aluminum production restrictions on supply is in the second half of the year, the current aluminum market still needs to be vigilant against the continuous increasing pressure of inventory, Guangdong aluminum ingot inventory has exceeded 300,000 tons
.
