The market outlook for organic silicon is hardly optimistic and needs to be improved

Since August, under the strong support of raw material costs and the buying sentiment of downstream manufacturers, domestic organic silicon prices have been rising all the way
.
According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of September 22, the average market price of silicone DMC in mainstream areas was 17,500 yuan (ton price, the same below), an increase of 5.
4% from August 1
.
Supported by this, downstream 107 glue, silicone oil and other manufacturers have followed up and adjusted their prices
.
However, industry insiders reminded that due to the large release of production capacity and the uncertainties of overseas demand, the outlook for silicones is hardly optimistic, and it is urgent to improve the development ecology in terms of technical level, safety and environmental protection
.
In the first half of the year, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, the demand in the downstream construction and automobile industries of the terminal was sluggish, and silicone companies suffered a huge impact, resulting in lower prices of silicon products
.
According to statistics, in the first half of the year, the average monthly price of silicone DMC was only 16,800 yuan, while the average price for the whole year of 2019 was 19,300 yuan
.
In addition, the performance of listed companies can also be seen
.
In the first half of the year, the revenue of listed silicone companies increased by 0.
05% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 29.
58% year-on-year, and the net profit margin decreased by 3.
94% year-on-year
.
Among them, in the second quarter, revenue increased by 10.
88% year-on-year and 39.
16% month-on-month; net profit attributable to the parent decreased by 30.
41 year-on-year, and net interest rate decreased by 6.
75% year-on-year
.
In the second half of the year, with the steady recovery of the domestic economy, the silicone market gradually improved
.
Especially since September, the market has shown a boom in supply and demand, and the word "rising" has become the main theme of the silicone market
.
According to analysis by industry marketers, the psychology of buying up and not buying down has led to high enthusiasm for downstream purchases, resulting in relatively concentrated demand
.
Under this circumstance, some silicone manufacturers have closed their plates in limited quantities, and the enthusiasm for speculation in the market continues to rise
.
Driven by the surge in DMC, the prices of downstream silicone oil and silicone rubber have also continued to rise
.
Supply and demand tends to be loose In the past 10 years, my country's organic silicon industry has developed rapidly, and the construction of new production capacity has never slowed down, and the supply is expected to continue to increase
.
According to the statistics of the National Silicon Industry Green Development Strategic Alliance (SAGSI), as of July 2019, the disclosed organic silicon monomer project in China has a production capacity of 6.
24 million tons/year, which is about 3 million tons/year of siloxane, which is equivalent to It is 2.
2 times of China's current total production capacity
.
It is estimated that about 600,000 tons/year of new monomer production capacity will be released in 2020 and 2021, and there will be at least 1.
5 million tons/year of planned new production capacity after 2022
.
Judging from the second half of this year, the 300,000 tons/year organic silicon project of Jiangsu Zhenjiang Jiangnan Chemical Co.
, Ltd.
, a subsidiary of Zhejiang Xin'an, is planned to be put into production, and the supply of goods is expected to increase
.
On the demand side, China's economy is still in a slow recovery phase.
Fixed asset investment continued to rise in July compared with the same period last year.
Investment conditions in infrastructure, real estate and manufacturing have all improved.
The "internal cycle" has driven the economy to slowly rebound
.
However, due to the integrated layout of the global industrial chain, terminal demand will still be greatly affected by the continuation of foreign epidemics
.
Silicone Mall analyst Zhang Min said that although the country has introduced various policies to promote consumption, but foreign epidemics still exist and the international market is blocked, so terminal demand has always been difficult to fully improve
.
In addition, there are still many variables in the export market.
It is expected that the recent increase in organic silicon will slow down, and the long-term market is hard to be optimistic
.
It is urgent to improve the ecological silicone as an "industrial vitamin" and a "technological catalyst", and the downstream application fields are continuously expanding.
In the future, it has broad development prospects in the fields of new energy vehicles, medical personal care, semiconductors and so on
.
However, there is still an intergenerational gap between domestic silicone technology and the international advanced level
.
On the one hand, the core technology has not yet been systematically mastered
.
Taking monomer synthesis as an example, the average selectivity of monomer synthesis (including high boiling point) in China is about 80%, which is 5-10% lower than that of multinational companies; the average single-pass conversion rate of methyl chloride is 35%, which is higher than that of multinational companies.
20~35 percentage points lower
.
On the other hand, there is a large gap in energy and material consumption in the production of organic silicon, and the level of safety and environmental protection is not high
.
Up to now, the comprehensive energy consumption per ton of siloxane in my country is 50%~100% higher than the world's leading level, and the average consumption of materials is 5%~10% higher.

.
In addition, the silicone industry faces the problem of low-level redundant construction
.
For this reason, some people in the industry suggest that, first, continue to promote the supply-side reform of the silicone industry, and cautiously "enter the market" for new projects without own technology or advanced technology sources
.
Second, with large-scale integrated enterprises as the main body and high-end downstream applications as the guide, further increase the development of important special raw materials and high-end downstream products
.
The third is to attach importance to the protection of intellectual property rights, strictly investigate intellectual property infringements in accordance with the law, and effectively protect and enhance the industry's innovation enthusiasm
.