The market transaction before the holiday is light, and the short-term trend of aluminum prices is dilemma

During the Qingming holiday, the night trading
on April 1 was canceled.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) session retreated to a 1.
02 percent drop on Friday amid concerns about weak activity at factories in China, the world's largest metals market, and doubtful
demand.
At the same time, Lun Aluminum led the decline with a decline of 1.
52
%.

On the macro front, China's official manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI and composite PMI output indices were 49.
5, 48.
4 and 48.
8 respectively in March, down 0.
7, 3.
2 and 2.
4 percentage points from the previous month, falling back into contraction territory
.
All sub-items of manufacturing PMI are in contraction range, and the supply and demand sides are weakening, reflecting the impact of
the epidemic.
From the current prevention and control situation, the current adherence to the policy of dynamic zero clearance remains unchanged, and it is expected that the PMI may continue to decline in April, but there is a possibility of a sharp rebound after effective control, and it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic
.
Overseas, Biden announced the largest oil reserve release plan, and international oil prices fell
.

In terms of the market, the impact of the epidemic is mainly focused on transportation and aluminum
.
Major processing enterprises in Shandong, Henan and Gansu said that they and the terminal are facing difficulties in product shipment, and the current aluminum inventory is relatively high, and aluminum processing enterprises and customers are difficult to deliver products and have to reduce the operating rate
.
In addition, the entry and exit of aluminum ingots in East and South China were blocked, and the circulation of goods decreased significantly, and the latest social library data increased slightly by 2,000 tons
per week.
From the perspective of spot transactions, East China, South China and Henan have poor purchasing intentions, spot demand is weakening, and the transaction is light
.

In terms of stocks, LME stocks were 646,850 tons, down 7,625 tons from the previous trading day, and the domestic social treasury totaled 308942 tons, down 24,881 tons
from the previous week.

From a fundamental point of view, the domestic supply side is stable, electrolytic aluminum production is in the climbing stage, and aluminum social inventory remains in a destocked state
.
Downstream processing enterprises have been greatly affected by the epidemic
.
Short-term expectations are volatile
.

Overall, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is repeated, but the energy problem of European aluminum enterprises is difficult to solve in the short term, overseas reported inventories continue to decline, premiums are running at a high level, the supply and demand pattern continues to be tight, and LME aluminum prices are strong and tough
under the support of extremely low inventories in Western Europe.
The domestic epidemic has put pressure on demand, and the pace of resumption of production has accelerated, but the lockdown has also had a significant impact on logistics, and the explicit inventory has increased slightly against the season but is expected to be relatively limited
.
The short-term trend is dilemma, and the high volatility is dominant
.