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Aluminum prices continued to rise this week, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum broke through the 16,000 mark
.
Shanghai aluminum continues to hit a three-year high, short-term Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to be strong, the average profit of a ton of aluminum exceeds 3,000 yuan, cautious chasing up
.
Fundamentals and macro still show a positive situation, the upstream and downstream consumption of fundamentals is stable, driving inventories to continue to degrade, and macro is around the progress of vaccines, Europe and the United States manufacturing industry is still recovering in November and other optimistic atmosphere
.
In terms of market, domestic consumption is still strong, spot premium has risen to around 140 yuan, market circulation is tight, and the risk of crowding remains maintained
.
The average price of alumina is generally downward, but the regional trend has diverged, Shanxi and Henan under the influence of the heating season, alumina prices have a slight rebound trend, while Guangxi because of the new production capacity in the region, the price has fallen, the situation of strong south and weak north has improved
.
Overall, alumina prices have reached the bottom, but the rebound height is limited, maintaining the state of low operation
.
In terms of stocks, mid-week aluminum ingot stocks have fallen below 600,000 tons (596,000 tons), down 19,000 tons from last week, and the destocking situation continues
.
November is coming to an end, and the current consumption side is still in a relatively stable state, supporting the continuous decentralization
of inventory.
In terms of import and export, this week the customs announced that the import volume of primary aluminum in October was 111,500 tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous month, and the import volume declined under the previous repair of the internal and external ratio, but recently under the continued strong performance of domestic aluminum prices, import profits have expanded again, especially in the case of the weakening of the US dollar, primary aluminum imports will continue to be maintained
.
The main logic of the market's bullish sentiment has not changed, the good fundamentals of continuous destocking under low inventory continue, while the macro atmosphere maintains an optimistic trend, of which the fundamentals are difficult to see the inflection point in the short term due to the stable state of consumption, and the macro optimism has been released for a long time, pay attention to the macroeconomic data in November inside and outside, whether it causes a difference in expectations, aluminum prices maintain a high level of operation
.
