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In the third week of March, China's East China market domestic natural rubber (standard 1) showed a trend of "U" first fell and then rose, the mainstream of the market on the 14th was about 12890 yuan / ton, and the main report was 12902 yuan / ton on the 18th, a weekly increase of 0.
3%.
On the supply side, global supply is at its lowest point of the year; China: Yunnan production area weather conditions are better, this year cutting about 20 days earlier than the previous year, on the 17th Yunnan production area Xishuangbanna Menghan, Menglun, Menghua, Mengman and other areas have been cut one after another, the initial glue production is less, heard that the price of glue 11.
6-12.
0 yuan / kg, the price of rubber block 10.
6-11 yuan kg, it is reported that other areas will be fully cut
after March 20, especially after the Songkran Festival.
In Hainan production area, the leaf litter of rubber trees has improved compared with the previous period, and the growth of new leaves in Wuzhishan, Qionghai and other surrounding areas is acceptable, and under normal weather conditions, it is expected that trial cutting
can begin in mid-April.
In terms of demand, the country has recently been widely affected by the epidemic, tire companies in Weihai, Zibo and Laixi areas of Shandong have arranged to stop production and limit production, and other enterprises have implemented closed measures to cooperate with epidemic prevention work
。 The current economic situation is complex, the global automotive industry continues to be sluggish, and the shortage of automotive chips has not been solved for a long time; At the same time, affected by the sharp rise in international crude oil, the domestic refined oil prices continued to rise, and the cost pressure caused by high oil prices led to the high demand for electric vehicles, under the influence of this, the future demand for natural rubber is bound to be promoted; However, in the short term, the epidemic prevention and control in Shandong is strict, transportation is restricted, and the pressure of finished product inventory is greater
.
In terms of inventory, it is reported that the current rubber inventory in Qingdao is low year-on-year, Southeast Asia has stopped production, and the initial amount of rubber in Yunnan production area is small, and the destocking of rubber inventory in Qingdao may have begun
.
Poor demand for natural rubber is the fundamental reason for the continued weakening of the market, the recent epidemic in Shandong, a major tire province, diverges from many points, strict prevention and control measures, downstream demand has not seen a significant improvement, finished product inventory pressure is large, and the amount of domestic rubber will continue to increase, it is expected that the short-term natural rubber market has not improved significantly; In the medium term, we will focus on the impact of the rapid growth in demand for electric vehicles on the tire industry and the driving role
of the natural rubber market.
