The off-season effect of the market is gradually showing Shanghai aluminum range volatility

In terms of news, last weekend the market reported that the alumina plant in Shandong and other places due to the Winter Olympics environmental protection issues reduced production by at least 50%, if the news is true, then such a large-scale alumina production reduction will have a strong impact on the market, in addition, the Tonga volcanic eruption over the weekend, or the impact on bauxite imports from Australia, but due to the sufficient port inventory, the event is limited to an emotional boost
.

In the market, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices have been under pressure since last Friday night, and the center of gravity has risen on Monday morning, but the current number of bears has increased positions, and the effect on price suppression still exists
.
In terms of spot in East China, as domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to weaken slightly, they decreased by 02,000 tons from last Thursday to 722,000 tons, and the spot discount was narrowed by 10 yuan / ton from last Friday to a discount of around
20 yuan / ton.
The spot transaction in the Central Plains (Gongyi) area has a large divergence on the early discount of East China, starting from the discount of 120 yuan / ton to SMM East China, and finally a few transactions to the SMM East China discount of 200 yuan / ton, the discount amplitude fluctuates greatly
.

From a fundamental point of view, the haze of overseas energy crisis has always existed, although European natural gas prices have fallen recently, they are still at a high level, and European aluminum plants are still facing strong cost pressure
.
And LME aluminum ingot inventory continues to destock, and has now fallen below 900,000 tons, forming a certain support
for aluminum prices.

The overall domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has risen slightly, the profits of aluminum plants have continued to recover, and there is a strong enthusiasm for resuming production overall, but it is still difficult to increase significantly in the short term
.
Approaching the Spring Festival, downstream terminals are on holiday, and the overall transaction of spot goods is weak, among which the overall trading in South China and East China has picked up, while buyers in Henan have poor purchasing willingness and poor transactions
.
The market off-season effect is gradually emerging, coupled with the Fed's interest rate hike expectations continue to strengthen, domestic real estate data continues to decline, short-term aluminum prices or range shocks are dominant
.