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Copper prices were generally weak
At the beginning of the week, copper prices hovered near the 5-day moving average, and although they once tried to rush up on Wednesday, their performance was relatively weak, failing to touch the high level before 67160 yuan, and then the Fed interest rate meeting put copper prices under obvious pressure, copper prices quickly fell below a number of moving averages, and finally stabilized
around 65,000 yuan.
On the macro front, the recent macro market's role in copper prices is extremely clear
At the beginning of last week, the market focused on the Fed interest rate meeting, but the market has little dispute that the Fed will raise interest rates by 50BP at this meeting, focusing on Powell's speech after the Fed meeting and the terminal interest rate
for this round of rate hikes.
The market continued to be cautious at the beginning of the week, and the dollar index also continued to oscillate lows, hitting a low of 103.
In the early hours of Thursday Beijing time, the Fed slowed down its interest rate hike to 50BP as scheduled, but raised its interest rate peak guidance more than expected, and the peak interest rate reached next year was raised by 50BP to 5.
1%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.
7% at one point, Powell hinted that it would not cut interest rates before 2024, but admitted that confidence in inflation would fall back increased
The dot plot shows that nearly nine-in-ten officials expect interest rates to exceed 5.
0 percent next year, up from last time anyone expected higher levels
The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for this year slightly, and continued to lower its GDP forecast
for the next two years.
Powell said at the press conference that the Fed strongly considers adjusting the next rate hike to 25BP, the Fed will not consider revising the 2% inflation target, and stressed that it is impossible to confirm that the FOMC will not raise the final interest rate again, and the Fed will not cut interest rates
until it is confident that inflation will fall back to 2%.
In addition to the 50BP interest rate hike confirmed at this meeting, other remarks surprised the market, the hawkish wind of the Federal Reserve brought pressure on the capital market again, U.
stocks fell one after another, although the dollar only recovered a small part of the lost ground at the low, but it still had a certain impact
on copper prices.
The European Central Bank also announced its latest policy decision, slowing the pace of interest rate hikes to 50BP
In terms of industry, there were frequent instability in overseas mine operations last week
Earlier this week, residents of the Cusco Andean community decided to block a key transportation road used by China Minmetals' Las Bambas copper mine, which was forced to store semi-processed materials at the site, and while mine operations are largely business as usual, inventories are rapidly approaching full capacity and threatening production
First Quantum's failure to reach an agreement with the Panamanian government on the operation of the Cobre Panama copper mine, coupled with a margin of profit in processing fees near the end of the year, led to an overall tight supply of spot copper concentrate
SMM's reported processing fee for imported copper concentrate has fallen back to $87.
In terms of demand, the end of the year is approaching, and although the market's expectations for terminal demand are quite optimistic, it is difficult for downstream demand to climb
significantly before the Spring Festival.
The Fed's rhetoric winds and optimistic expectations for domestic demand have been intertwined in the short term, and copper prices will fluctuate significantly at the end of the year, but there is no clear trend
The week will continue to be dominated by volatile trends