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After the Spring Festival, PVC under strong macro stimulus, futures spot once hit the 9500 position, and then the price fell to around 8400, returning to the price position
corresponding to the fundamentals.
Later, under the expectation of tightening supply and stronger demand, it reflected the market's mentality shift
between the strength of the near and far ends.
Next, we mainly analyze how PVC converts
between strength and weakness in the near future from supply and demand and profit.
Thermal coal futures prices were volatile, and the 05 contract rose to 867 yuan/ton
.
The more direct upstream of PVC Shaanxi Lan charcoal has basically remained stable, and it has been lowered by 50 yuan / ton
in some areas.
The operating rate of calcium carbide enterprises has risen, the price of calcium carbide has pulled back slightly, and the range of reduction in various regions this week is about 0-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in northwest China has reached 4456 yuan / ton
.
The previous surge in crude oil had little impact on PVC, and the plunge in crude oil in recent days also had less
impact on PVC.
Affected by the epidemic, logistics in some areas have stopped shipping, and PVC profits have risen recently, and they are in a slight profit state
.
It is also necessary to focus on blue charcoal and calcium carbide prices
.
Last week, the operating rate of PVC enterprises fell 0.
51 percentage points month-on-month to 81.
88%, up 3.
46 percentage points year-on-year, and the spring inspection is still expected
.
The weather is warmer, downstream demand has rebounded, but it is still less than expected, profile products enterprises are not as good as in previous years, affected by environmental protection, epidemic, etc.
, enterprises need to purchase mainly, and the overall transaction is general
.
In terms of social stock, as of March 20, social stock decreased by 0.
92% from last week to 332,400 tons, but was 6.
06%
higher than the same period last year.
At present, blue charcoal and calcium carbide have fallen slightly, North China and other places have experienced tight arrivals, and social inventories have declined, but they are still high year-on-year, and export inquiries are positive, but domestic downstream demand is general, cautious in raw material procurement, PVC shock sorting, pay attention to upstream cost changes
.
