The overall trend of Shanghai copper is strong, but the increase is relatively limited

Last week, London copper bottomed out
.
The average price of LME copper in the first four trading days was 7653.
25 US dollars / ton, up 26 US dollars / ton per day; The average price of the previous week was 7469.
75 US dollars / ton, up 183.
5 US dollars / ton from the previous month, a cumulative increase of 2.
46%.

In terms of spot, the wait-and-see mood in the spot market is strong, and the downstream maintains a weak procurement situation under high premium and high copper prices, and the fear of heights is obvious
.
Holders choose to adjust prices and sell goods for cash, and the willingness of receivers to receive goods is weak, and buyers and sellers show a situation of hesitation and stalemate
.
On the whole, supply and demand have shrunk, the overall transaction performance is relatively flat, and the trading atmosphere is not good
.

On the supply side, overseas copper mine supply remains tight, and there are intermittent disturbances at the mine end; Domestic copper mine imports continued to grow in September, and refined copper production increased by 5.
8% year-on-year, the highest monthly level
since last year.
The TC index continued to rise, and the smelting profit increased, indicating that the supply of copper concentrate was loose, and some smelters had plans to chase production at the end of the year, and it is expected that electrolytic copper production in October will continue to rise; However, crude copper and spot supply are still tight, and LME copper inventories and Shanghai copper warehouses both fell at high levels, and global explicit copper inventories remained at a low level, providing support for prices
.

In terms of demand, the demand side in the fourth quarter is actually not pessimistic, infrastructure projects in September more than 1.
5 trillion intensive starts, and there is still a strong trend, in this silver ten peak season under the photovoltaic orders are sufficient, photovoltaic module companies rushed to work; and China's multi-dimensional infrastructure construction, of which renewable energy power generation total exceeded 1.
1 billion kilowatts, nearly three times more than ten years ago; and new energy vehicles continued to supply and demand boom, September production and sales continued to grow
month-on-month.
However, the biggest uncertainty of current copper consumption comes from real estate, although there is policy support, but the performance is weak, continue to contain the consumption performance of copper, need to continue to pay attention to the implementation of follow-up support policies
.

Macro pressure slowed last week, the hawkish Fed's interest rate hike stance softened and risk appetite increased, the dollar's strong position weakened, and the pressure on non-ferrous metals weakened
.
At the same time, many central banks raised interest rates less than expected, indicating that monetary policy will shift from tightening to copper prices
.
In addition, the World Bank report shows that China's economy is resilient, contributing more to world economic growth than G7 countries combined
.
Moreover, China vigorously promotes infrastructure, photovoltaic, power, cable, and new energy industries perform beautifully, which greatly drives copper consumption
.

In terms of inventory, global copper inventories are still low, spot supply is still tight, and high premiums support copper prices, so copper prices remain
strong.
However, at the same time, the domestic copper mine supply is becoming increasingly loose, the spot market performance is light, the downstream wait-and-see mood is strong and afraid of heights, the willingness to receive goods is low, which suppresses
the rise in copper prices.
Moreover, the overseas bearish atmosphere has not dissipated for the time being, the hegemony of the US dollar cannot be shaken, and the weakness of domestic real estate are factors that cannot be ignored, so the overall trend of Shanghai copper is strong, but the increase is relatively limited
.