The overall upward pace of crude oil prices slows down

The overall global economy is improving, and the attractiveness of the U.
S.
dollar has increased to some extent, which has suppressed commodities.
In addition, the resurgence of the epidemic in Europe will also affect crude oil demand and market sentiment.
The demand for crude oil in the United States has returned to the 5-year average level, while the demand in the Chinese market is basically on track, but the seasonal overhaul of refineries has caused certain losses in demand for crude oil processing.
On the whole, it is expected that the crude oil market will continue to destock in the second quarter.
However, due to the increase in production of OPEC+ and the recovery of demand from the European epidemic, the extent of crude oil destocking in the second quarter will be less than that in the first quarter.

The global economy is improving as a whole, and the attractiveness of the U.

S.

The global economy continues to repair, and vaccines are expected to slow the impact of the epidemic.

Since the beginning of this year, with the stimulus measures of various countries and the overall improvement of the global epidemic situation, the economies of various countries have continued to recover from the previous month.

The phased strengthening of the US dollar suppressed oil prices.

In the past two months, stronger inflation expectations have pushed the yields of U.

　　OPEC+ will increase production moderately, and US shale oil prospects are bleak

　　OPEC+ started to increase production moderately in May, and Saudi Arabia gradually withdrew from voluntary production cuts.

At the beginning of April, the meeting of oil-producing countries reached an agreement on the new production policy.
OPEC+ will start to increase production moderately from May, and Saudi Arabia will gradually withdraw from voluntary production cuts.

　　The future production increase plans of oil-producing countries will be more moderate, and the impact on supply will be limited.

At the same time, the market believes that OPEC+'s increasing crude oil supply is insufficient to meet the growing demand, and there are certain countermeasures for the restoration of Iranian supply.

　　U.

S.

　　Due to US sanctions, Iran’s crude oil production has continued to decline in the past two years, from about 3.

8 million barrels per day in the first half of 2018 to less than 2 million barrels per day at the end of last year, a drop of nearly 50%, and Iran’s crude oil is also difficult.

　　At present, although the United States and Iran have not yet conducted formal negotiations on the nuclear issue, from the perspective of the resumption of supply of Iranian crude oil, the future resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement and the gradual relaxation of sanctions on Iran by the United States are the general trend, and the return of Iranian crude oil to the market The potential increase in supply is expected to be 2 million barrels per day.

　　Upstream investment is sluggish, and the outlook for U.

S.

　　Judging from the production rate data, the sharp decline since the end of last year indicates that in the current market environment, it is difficult to increase the willingness of shale oil producers to exploit even if the oil price rises.
After the shale oil industry has had a significant impact, US shale oil companies are now paying more attention to capital returns instead of blindly expanding production as they did in previous years.

　　In addition, the pace of decline in inventory wells has also begun to slow down, which is the main factor in maintaining the level of crude oil production in the United States in the early stage.
From the perspective of single-well production data, the production efficiency of oil wells has dropped significantly in recent months, which also has a certain drag on the recovery of US crude oil production.
After Biden took office, the Green New Deal it implemented has also had a greater impact on the US crude oil industry.
In late January, Biden issued an order to suspend new crude oil and natural gas drilling on federal land for a period of 60 days.
During this period, the U.
S.
government will review the environmental and legal impact of mineral leasing projects.
This move will prevent the U.
S.
federal government from selling.
New mining and exploitation rights for approximately 700 million acres of land.
This is part of Biden's comprehensive plan to tackle climate change and achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

　　At present, the fossil fuels produced by the land and waters managed by the federal government account for about 10% of the U.
S.
crude oil and natural gas supply, but the fossil fuels produced on this part of the federal land account for nearly 25% of the U.
S.
greenhouse gas emissions, which makes them easy to become Goals of the government’s climate agenda.
In addition, Biden cancelled the KeystoneXL oil pipeline expansion project on the day he took office, which will affect the crude oil trade between the United States and Canada.
In the long run, the Green New Deal of the Biden administration will have a certain impact on the US shale oil industry.
It may be difficult for us to see the big development of the US shale oil industry similar to the previous years.
However, in the short term, it will be affected by upstream investment.
Rock oil production is also difficult to increase.

　　Vaccine coverage is gradually expanding, and demand for crude oil continues to recover

　　The global demand for crude oil is slowly repairing, and the demand for jet fuel is increasing month-on-month.
Since the end of last year, the gradual use of vaccines has had a certain effect on the prevention and control of the epidemic.
However, in terms of the coverage of the vaccinated population, the distribution of vaccinations across the country is extremely uneven.
Among them, the United States and the United Kingdom have relatively high vaccine coverage, but still less than half of them.
Germany, France, and the BRICS countries have less than 15% of the population covered by vaccines.
The majority of the world's vaccine coverage rates are less than 5%.

　　Since March, new cases of new coronary pneumonia in some European countries have risen again, which has caused Italy, France, the Netherlands and other countries to announce strict blockades.
At the same time, some European countries once stopped using AstraZeneca vaccines to further the market’s concerns about the European epidemic.
Intensify.
On the whole, the current global coverage of vaccination is still low, and the epidemic may deteriorate again at any time like the recent one in Europe, which also brings uncertainty to the recovery of crude oil demand.

　　The three major energy agencies, EIA, OPEC, and IEA, believe that global crude oil demand will increase by 5.
32 million barrels per day, 5.
5 million barrels per day, and 5.
88 million barrels per day in 2021.
Among the global crude oil consumption, aviation kerosene consumption is still the slowest recovery.
According to the IEA's forecast, aviation kerosene consumption will not be able to return to the level before the epidemic within the year.

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