The positive superposition of PE decline is reversible

        In mid-July, the polyethylene (PE) market began to "group" do.

As of now, the reference price of high-density polyethylene (HDPE) is 8,4167 yuan (ton price, the same below), down 54% from the beginning of August; the reference price of low-density polyethylene (LDPE) is 8,300 yuan, down 92% from the beginning of August; The reference price of linear low-density polyethylene (LLDPE) was 7,400 yuan, down 13% from the beginning of Augu.

        Looking at the market outlook, under the influence of favorable factors of supply and demand, the current decline of the PE market is expected to rever.

        First, overhaul affects market supp.

Recently, several sets of PE plants are under maintenance, such as Sino-Korea Petrochemical 300,000 tons/year HDPE plant, Shenhua Yulin 300,000 tons/year LDPE plant, Zhongtian Hechuang 250,000 tons/year LDPE plant and Dushanzi Petrochemical with a total production capacity of 15 million The 5 sets of PE units with a ton/year capacity are currently shut down for maintenance or ready to start construction, involving a production capacity of about 2 million tons/year, accounting for more than 10% of the industry's total production capacity, and the loss is basically at the peak this ye.

In addition, for PE with a high degree of import dependence, the recent decline in the exchange rate of the RMB against the.

dollar has been detrimental to the import of products in stages, which is beneficial to the export of products, thus affecting the reduction of supply in the domestic mark.

        Second, the downstream demand for agricultural film is optimist.

On the one hand, the production and sales of agricultural film are entering the peak season, and the operating rate of enterprises has increas.

August is the peak season for shed film sales, and the purchase volume of dealers increases; from September to October, it enters the peak season for shed film production, which generally lasts until the Spring Festival; from mid-August to mid-September, garlic mulch enters the peak production season, which lasts about one mon.

At present, the operating rate of agricultural film enterprises has nearly doubled compared with June, and is in a continuous recove.

In addition, North China and East China are the major production and consumption areas of agricultural fi.

Affected by the typhoon "Likima", some agricultural greenhouses have been damag.

In the later period, farmers may usher in the peak of changing sheds, and the demand for plastic agricultural film will also increase in the short te.

        Again, the inventory pressure is reliev.

After a period of low-level operation, the PE inventory that remained high in the previous period has eas.

At present, the PE port inventory is around 300,000 tons, down 17% from the annual high; the PE social inventory is down 17% from the annual high; the petrochemical enterprise inventory is also down 35% from the annual hi.

        On the whole, the PE market supply has decreased, downstream demand has entered the peak season, and the inventory pressure has continued to ease, and the market outlook will usher in a bottom-up ral.