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On Monday, Liansu L2105 contract reduced its position, and the futures price fluctuated higher, closing at 7760 on the day, +155 yuan from the previous trading day; The volume was 408359 lots, the position was reported 255064 lots, -4181, and the basis was -10 yuan
.
News: In 2021, PE overseas planned new investment capacity is expected to be 6.
83 million tons, mainly concentrated in Asia and North America, of which the new investment capacity of the United States is 3.
43 million tons, accounting for 50.
22%; South Korea's new investment capacity is 2.
15 million tons, accounting for 31.
48%, and the expansion time of foreign polyethylene enterprises in 2021 is mainly concentrated in the fourth quarter
.
From 2016 to 2020, polyethylene production capacity increased by 6.
97 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 9.
24%, and the average price of polyethylene fell from 9328 yuan / ton in 2016 to 7390 yuan / ton in 2020, a decrease of 20.
78%.
。 The data shows that with the increase of production capacity year by year, the average price of polyethylene has declined at an average annual rate of 5.
66%; Especially in 2019-2020, polyethylene concentrated capacity expansion, of which the production capacity in 2019 increased by 930,000 tons, an increase of 4.
98%, and the average price of that year fell by 1543 yuan / ton, a decrease of 15.
96%; In 2020, the increase in production capacity hit a record high, with a capacity increase of 3.
8 million tons, an increase of 19.
38%, and the average price fell to 7,390 yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.
02%.
In 2021, according to Longzhong information statistics, the domestic new polyethylene production capacity will be 5.
6 million tons, and the capacity increase will once again refresh the record high, and the production capacity growth rate is expected to reach 23.
92%.
The average price of polyethylene is expected to continue to weaken
.
Market quotation: North China Daqing Petrochemical 7042 mainstream price is 7750 yuan / ton, +100 yuan
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: 1121 warehouse receipts, +108 sheets
.
Main positions: Top 20 long positions at 158040, -4018; short positions at 186889, +534
.
Increased
headroom.
Summary: In January, PE maintenance equipment began to resume work, the weekly average operating rate of polyethylene rebounded, and the overall market supply began to recover
.
Petrochemical inventories of two barrels of oil continued to fall slightly, indicating that the downstream rigid demand for PE remained
.
PE packaging film companies are optimistic and bearish on the raw material market
.
82% of PE packaging film companies are optimistic about linear market enterprises
.
Approaching the Spring Festival
.
Starting next week, there will be a small number of shutdowns and holidays at the terminal, and demand may decrease
accordingly.
At present, the fundamentals are long and short intertwined, and it is expected that the short-term will maintain a range shock pattern, operationally, it is recommended that investors can operate in the range, the pressure level is 7900 yuan, and the support level is 7580 yuan
.
