The price of refined oil products may end with a "fifteen rise"! Fill a box for an extra $5

At 24:00 on December 31, domestic refined oil prices will be the "last adjustment"
of the year.
The comprehensive agency predicts that after the "three consecutive falls", the domestic refined oil prices will be raised in the current round of price adjustment
cycle.
The reporter noted that this may be the 15th increase in the price of refined oil products this year, more than two months from the last increase, during which oil prices "ran aground and fell three times in a row"
.

In this round of pricing cycle, international oil prices as a whole showed a trend
of first falling and then rising.
In the early morning of December 30, Beijing time, international oil prices hit a new high in nearly a month, and the price of light crude oil (WTI) futures delivered on the New York Mercantile Exchange in February 2022 rose by $0.
58 to close at $76.
56 per barrel, an increase of 0.
76%; London Brent crude futures for February 2022 rose $0.
29, or 0.
37%,
to close at $79.
23 a barrel.

In terms of inventory, on December 29, local time, the U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing that in the week ended December 24, the U.
S.
commercial crude oil inventory was 420 million barrels, a decrease of 3.
6 million barrels
from the previous month.

Wang Luqing, a refined oil analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, said that with the continuous upgrading of the understanding of the Omikron mutant strain, air travel and restrictive measures have been gradually lifted, and international oil prices have continued to rebound
from a low level.

Zhongyu Information Analyst Pan Wenjing pointed out that the supply and demand side has also provided impetus for the upward trend of oil prices, including OPEC+'s decision to maintain the established production increase plan without adjustment, and the interruption of crude oil production in Ecuador, Libya and Nigeria, resulting in an overall contraction
in crude oil supply.

According to Zhuo Chuang information, as of the close of trading on December 29, the domestic 9th working day reference crude oil change rate was 2.
75%, and it is expected that gasoline and diesel will increase by 115 yuan / ton
.
According to the calculation data of Jinlianchuang, as of the ninth working day of December 30, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 75.
48 US dollars / barrel, with a change rate of 2.
57%, and the corresponding domestic gasoline and diesel retail price should be raised by 120 yuan / ton
.

Wang Luqing said that the retail price increase of refined oil products has become a foregone conclusion, and it is expected that 92# gasoline and 0# diesel will rise by about 0.
1 yuan per liter, and a tank of 50L of 92# gasoline is expected to cost about
5 yuan more.
For the majority of consumers, the cost of oil will increase
slightly.

According to the reporter's statistics, since the beginning of this year, the domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted 24 rounds, accumulating "fourteen rises, six downs, four stranded", gasoline prices as a whole increased by 1345 yuan / ton, diesel prices as a whole increased by 1295 yuan / ton
.
If this adjustment is landed, the price adjustment of refined oil products throughout the year will show a pattern
of "fifteen rises, six downs, four stranded".

In accordance with the "ten working days" principle, the next round of price adjustment window will open
at 24:00 on January 17, 2022.

Liu Bingjuan, a refined oil analyst at Longzhong Information, believes that the current international oil prices are gradually getting rid of the influence of the Omikron mutation strain, and the favorable factors have once again prevailed, and it is expected that the probability of the next round of refined oil price adjustment is larger
.

Pan Wenjing analysis said that the price trend of crude oil is strongly related to the supply and demand side, in the context of the current tightening supply, crude oil will fluctuate upward in the short term, but the market will remain vigilant, because the supply and demand side of crude oil are uncertain
.

In addition, for the short-term and medium-term international oil price trends, Zhuo Chuang Information Research Team believes that it is mainly affected by three types of situational factors such as economic scenarios, financial (monetary) scenarios, and supply and demand scenarios
.
The research team recently predicted that international oil prices (monthly averages) will fall month by month in the first three months of 2022, at $69, $68 and $
67 per barrel, respectively.