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Aluminum prices are under the pressure of expectations of increasing and resuming production recently, although aluminum prices are still above 12,000 in recent months, but thanks to low spot inventory, the market has not yet shown an inflection point
.
The weakening of domestic aluminum prices has gradually reduced the Shanghai-London ratio, which may be good for exports, or it may be expected to have a certain scale of internal and external positive operations
due to the expectation of domestic consumption off-season.
Macro: Compared with the first quarter, the economic data in April and May has shown downside risks, including the decline in the growth rate of fixed investment and other data, the monetary easing policy of many countries around the world may pull China on the car to move in the same direction, there is a possibility of expanding macro policy stimulus, aluminum prices may be supported in the short term
.
Market: the supply trend is only increasing, the cost is not supported, although the six aluminum companies met to discuss the maintenance of aluminum prices, but the form is greater than the content, even if the aluminum price falls below 11,000 yuan there is no possibility of reducing production, at most it is to slow down the resumption of production and put into production
.
In addition, the inflection point of inventory is not the fundamental situation, but the fundamental expectation, the decline in inventory indicates that consumption is stronger than supply, the increase in inventory indicates that consumption is weaker than supply, in the case of supply increase trend becomes market consensus, the inflection point of inventory will increase the confidence of funds to short aluminum prices, in the long run, the aluminum market will still be affected by pressure
.
Overall, the short-term benefits of the macro are limited, while the long-term trend still needs to observe the market fundamentals
.
Since the current aluminum price can still maintain the profits of most enterprises, the resumption of production and production is continuing, when the expectation becomes a reality, the trend of aluminum prices has turned short, high and low is no longer the key
.
If the aluminum price maintains the break-even point of the resumption of production, it will eliminate the motivation for resuming production, and the fundamentals in the second half of the year may
promote the rebound of aluminum prices.
