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Recently, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has continued to intensify, the market's panic about the shortage of energy products has intensified, and the price of crude oil has accelerated and continued to reach new highs
.
WTI crude rose more than 3 percent intraday on Thursday, approaching $115 a barrel
.
CITIC Securities believes that the short-term oil price trend still needs to continue to track the evolution of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, if the European and American sanctions against Russia continue to increase, seriously restricting Russian crude oil, natural gas exports, will lead to a substantial shortage of global crude oil, natural gas, or significantly push up oil and gas prices, do not rule out the possibility
of oil prices rushing to $120 / barrel or even higher in the short term.
In addition, because the recovery of crude oil supply usually lags behind the recovery of demand, from the perspective of 1-2 months, there is still a possibility of rapid recovery of demand and relatively tight supply, even if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not considered, there is also a strong fundamental support
for short-term oil prices.
Driven by the continued rise in crude oil prices, oil and gas-related capital expenditure is expected to usher in a new round of expansion
.
Industry analysts pointed out that the recovery of oil and gas investment generally lags behind oil prices for one year, and oil and gas investment has begun to increase
significantly recently.
In addition, the oil and gas industry has had low capital expenditure in the past two years, and the supply of the industry has gradually contracted
.
With the gradual recovery of the economy and the leadership of global demand, the industry is expected to enter a new expansion cycle
.
The global competitiveness of Chinese enterprises has improved significantly compared with the previous cycle, and domestic oil service companies have stable fundamentals and are continuing to benefit from the recovery of oil prices and the transfer
of global industrial chains to China.
