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On Thursday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai copper rushed back to the high, with the highest 50,920 yuan / ton and the lowest 50,020 yuan / ton during the day, and the closing price was 50,410 yuan / ton, up 1.
08% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME copper fell under pressure, as of 15:00 Beijing time, the three-month London copper was reported at 6386 US dollars / ton, down 0.
76%
on the day.
Market focus: (1) The US unseasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate in July actually released 0.
60%, 0.
2% expected, and 0.
2% in the previous month, recording the largest month-on-month growth
since January 1991.
(2) U.
S.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin spoke on August 12, but did not further break the deadlock between the two sides, so the prospects for a new round of pandemic assistance programs appear even bleaker
.
Spot analysis: On August 13, spot 1# electrolytic copper was quoted at 50480-50600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 50540 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 490 yuan / ton
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai copper warehouse receipts totaled 66,265 tons on Thursday, an increase of 858 tons per day; On 12 August, LME copper stocks were 114575 tonnes, down 50 tonnes
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai copper main 2009 contracts were 75133 lots, minus 2356 lots per day, 73567 short positions, minus 599 lots per day, net long positions were 1566 lots, daily minus 1757 lots, long and short were reduced, net long and long decreased
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai copper 2009 rushed back on
August 13.
The US CPI data exceeded expectations and the epidemic showed signs of easing, but the lack of progress in stimulus policies put pressure on the US index; At the same time, the current domestic copper mine procurement demand is high, and the supply of raw materials remains tight, which supports copper prices
.
However, the deepening confrontation between China and the United States, the tension between the two countries has further heated up, suppressing market optimism; In addition, the current market is in the off-season, downstream demand performance is weak, Shanghai copper inventories have increased recently, and the pressure on copper prices has increased
.
Technically, the mainstream long position of the Shanghai copper 2009 contract is large, focusing on the support at the 49500 position, and it is expected to be weak and volatile
in the short term.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to operate in the range of 49500-50600 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 300 yuan / ton
each.
