The supply side is still putting pressure on aluminum prices, and further upward momentum is insufficient

On the macro front, market expectations for a subsequent sharp interest rate hike have weakened
.
Overseas, European energy prices are still at a high level recently, and it is expected that overseas smelters will not be able to resume production in the short term, and if the energy problem continues to ferment, there is a possibility
of production reduction and expansion.
Domestic supply remains high, and it is necessary to pay attention to the power supply at high temperatures
.

In terms of demand, the market transaction is general, and the overall maintenance is mainly demand-based
.
In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum showed a small accumulation, due to poor market transactions, there is still accumulation pressure
in the later aluminum ingot inventory.

In terms of price, low inventory and marginal cost support below aluminum prices, the recent energy crisis and aluminum plant accidents have stimulated prices, but long-term supply pressure and consumption has not improved to a certain extent on the price rebound height, it is recommended to be short-term neutral treatment, need to pay attention to the impact
of macro on market sentiment.

Overall, the European energy crisis is difficult to alleviate in the short term, overseas refineries under high cost pressure, supply prospects are difficult to say optimistic, and the reduction continues to materialize, which has some support
for aluminum prices.
However, the pressure on the domestic aluminum supply side still exists, although the Sichuan aluminum plant accident affected market sentiment and boosted aluminum prices, but the specific production capacity reduction is unknown, and the production reduction is not universal, the impact on the overall electrolytic aluminum production capacity is limited, and the supply side is still putting pressure
on aluminum prices.