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Trade Service
This week, Shanghai aluminum showed a volatile downward trend, and the main 2004 contract closed at 13580 yuan, down 140 yuan
for the week.
This week, the trend of aluminum prices is significantly weaker
.
Technically, after breaking the upper pressure line in the early stage, and then falling again, this is a false breakout, and it is still weak
in the short term.
On Thursday, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 1.
221 million tons, an increase of 136,000 tons from last Thursday, which is already a huge increase in the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum for three consecutive weeks and is at a medium-high level
in history.
At present, it is in the stage of increasing the inventory of conventional electrolytic aluminum, which has a certain inhibitory effect
on aluminum prices.
Some alumina production enterprises have been affected to a certain extent due to the difficulty of bauxite transportation or the shortage of natural gas
.
Recently, the price of alumina has rebounded slightly, with an average price of 2500 yuan / ton
.
At the plate price, the current profit of producing one ton of electrolytic aluminum is about 700 yuan, which has dropped
significantly from before.
This week's spot A00 aluminum ingot has expanded its discount to the current month's contract, with an average discount of 110 yuan / ton to 70 yuan / ton
on Thursday.
At present, the premium of Shanghai aluminum is at a low level
.
The holder actively ships the goods, but the middleman is not willing to receive the goods, and the actual transaction is average
.
The downstream performance is still calm, and the stocking is not obvious
.
The passenger car association released the car sales data: in the first half of February 2020, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the retail sales of domestic passenger car manufacturers fell by 92% year-on-year, the highest decline in history
.
Conclusion: This week's electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased again dramatically, and according to historical laws, it is currently in the replenishment stage
.
At present, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, but consumption is still not ideal
.
At the same time, under the relatively considerable smelting profit, the productivity of electrolytic aluminum is not reduced
.
It is expected that aluminum prices will show low volatility and it will be difficult to continue to rebound
.
Watch for support
from the previous low.
