The unequal status of oil and gas will change

Since the second quarter of last year, although the cloud of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has not yet dissipated, the prices of oil and natural gas have generally shown a trend of picking up.

Oil demand bottoming forecast

Under the trend of accelerating energy transition, the rapid development of electric vehicles and their penetration into the energy sector will have a great impact on oil: oil demand in 2050 will drop by 70% from the current level, but natural gas demand will remain strong.

In 2023, oil demand will begin to decline with the advancement of climate response measures, and then accelerate, declining at a rate of 2 million barrels per day per year.

The important position of natural gas in the energy transition

In sharp contrast to the bleak outlook for oil demand is natural gas demand, which will remain at the same level in 2050.

From a regional perspective, the demand for natural gas in Asia will rise instead of falling, which is mainly related to the large number of coal-fired power plants.

Changes in oil and gas prices

The huge divergence of oil and gas demand due to climate response and energy transition also means that the price trends of the two are different.

Forecasts show that in 2029, oil prices will begin to decline.

　　But the situation of falling oil volume and price is only just beginning.

　　Natural gas is just the opposite.

　　But according to Wood Mackenzie's baseline scenario, the gap between oil and gas prices will remain and maintain until 2050, but this gap will begin to shrink after oil demand peaks in the late 2030s.