The upward trend of the main force of Shanghai aluminum is hindered, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak

Market focus: A number of senior Fed officials will speak on Friday night, which will affect
the Fed's October rate cut expectations.
Primary aluminum production in September was 2.
9 million tons, down 1.
6% year-on-year; The total output from January to September was 26.
37 million tons, an increase of 1.
1%.

From January to September 2019, the national real estate development investment was 9.
8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.
5%, and the growth rate was the same as that from January to August; From January to September, the sales area of commercial housing was 119179 million square meters, down 0.
1% year-on-year, and the decline was 0.
5 percentage points
narrower than that from January to August.

Spot analysis: On October 18, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13980-14020 yuan / ton, the average price was 14000 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 40 yuan / ton
.
Due to the hesitation of the high-rise underwater middleman receiving goods, with the fermentation of the market atmosphere, the shipment volume of the cargo holders began to increase, and the state of less receiving and receiving more was eased, and the transaction atmosphere weakened after 11:00
.
Downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand during the day, because spot aluminum prices have crossed the 10,000 mark under high rising water, and have risen for four consecutive days, downstream performance is wait-and-see, although it is close to the weekend, the actual stock volume is not as expected
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 82,757 tons on Friday, a daily decrease of 14,429 tons; On October 17, LME aluminum stocks were 979575 tons, a daily decrease of 3,950 tons
.
As of the week ended October 18, aluminum stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 316466 tons, down 3,407 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 78931 lots, minus 430 lots per day, short positions are 81744 lots, daily minus 4866 lots, net short positions are 2813 lots, daily minus 4436 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

On October 18, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 encountered obstacles to its upward movement
.
U.
S.
economic data is not performing well, the Fed October interest rate cut expectations are heating up, the United Kingdom agreement Brexit expectations are strengthened, putting pressure on the dollar, while the current electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remains low, electrolytic aluminum inventory dematerialization continues, good for aluminum prices, but the current global economic downward pressure increases, market pessimism still exists, downstream demand performance is weak, pressure on aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, due to the hesitation of the high-rise underwater middleman to receive goods, with the fermentation of the market atmosphere, the shipment volume of cargo holders began to increase, and the state of less receiving and receiving more was eased, and downstream manufacturers mainly took goods on demand
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum is long and the upper shadow, and the daily MACD green column shrinks, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak
.