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On Monday, Shanghai copper opened high in the morning and was strongly volatile, and the intraday gains narrowed slightly, with the main monthly 2212 contract opening at 61680 yuan / ton, and the daily close at 62840 yuan / ton, up 810 yuan / ton, or 1.
31%.
Some Fed officials made dovish voices hoping that growth would slow down the pace of aggressive interest rate hikes, the dollar index fell back from its highs, and the pressure on non-ferrous metals was suspended, coupled with better-than-expected economic data from China, improving the outlook for metal demand, and Shanghai copper closed higher
on the upper side.
In terms of spot, on October 24, the trading price of Yangtze River spot 1# copper was 64650-64690 yuan / ton, up 580 yuan / ton; Liter 730-Liter 770, down 100 yuan / ton
.
In the spot market, the recent arrival of some imports has supplemented the current tight supply, the downstream receiving performance is not positive enough, the price sentiment of the holders has fallen, and the trading activity is slightly general
.
In terms of inventories, as of October 22, London Metal Exchange (LME) copper stocks decreased by 2,625 tons, or 134,700 tons, by 1.
91%, and London copper registered warehouse receipts were 62,325 tons, and warehouse receipts were cancelled by 72,375 tons; As of October 24, the warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper futures in the previous period was 49,486 tons, down 2,801 tons
from the previous day.
On the supply side, copper concentrate supply is loose, TC shows a rebound trend, refined copper supply in October was further released, refinery raw material warehouse, port inventory is high
.
Coupled with the recent arrival of some imported copper, it may supplement
the current tight supply.
However, the social stock is still degrading over the weekend, and the overall real supply still maintains a tight pattern
.
On the demand side, domestic real estate and its consumption of home appliances, home furnishings and building materials still showed a weakening trend
.
Coupled with the recent frequent domestic epidemics, demand has been suppressed
.
However, China's high import copper premium, steady demand, and beautiful development in the new energy sector have increased copper consumption, which has a certain supporting effect
on copper prices.
On the whole, the Fed's aggressive interest rate hike eased slightly, followed by a weakening of the dollar index and a weakening of the pressure on non-ferrous metals
.
But don't relax, you still need to pay attention to the macro logic and the impact of a strong dollar on commodities, and the macro pressure is far from over, the dollar is only a phased adjustment, and the market risk sentiment is still uncertain
.
Recently, LME copper inventories have fallen, the pressure on the copper market has eased, and the domestic copper supply is still tight, demand is firm, and copper prices are marginally rising, and China's imported copper premium is high, the development trend of new energy is beautiful, copper consumption is rising, and the bottom of copper prices is supported
.
As a result, copper prices continue to show high range-bound volatility, but considering that consumption is less than expected, the upside is limited
.
