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Today's Shanghai copper bottomed out, closing the Shanghai copper main 2102 contract at 58710, down 750, or 1.
26%.
In the afternoon, the US dollar index fell, Shanghai copper rose slightly, converged its decline, currently facing the consumption off-season, fundamental supply and demand are stable, as the market worries about the epidemic intensified caused Shanghai copper high to fall
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediately changing the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar is likely to remain weak
.
On the fundamental side, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate processing fee floor price for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from the fourth quarter of 2020, and the future supply is still difficult to say loose
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021 is relatively high
.
In addition, the country's 14th Five-Year Plan attaches importance to the new energy sector, and will continue to support the demand for copper varieties
.
In the spot market, the wait-and-see mood is strong, the receiving sentiment is not good, and the downstream consumption is general
.
Fundamental support is limited, and consumption is weakening
seasonally.
Coupled with the strength of the US dollar, this puts copper prices under some pressure
at the moment.
Last week, the US Congress officially recognized Biden as the next president, and the Democratic Party swept the White House and the congressional aftermarket bet on further stimulus policies that led to copper prices rising
.
For the later trend of copper prices, the long-term trading logic of the market is still dominated by macro, and the economic recovery is expected to be strong after the promotion and use of vaccines, and under the stimulus policy, the currency continues to be loose, and copper prices are still expected to rise
.
In the short term, due to the year-end effect, demand has gradually weakened, coupled with the increase in epidemic worries, copper prices seek support downward, strategically, it is recommended that the medium term can continue to hold, and the short term is recommended to continue to wait and see
.
