There are still variables in the second half of the coking industry's capacity replacement

From 2016 to 2018, the state issued a series of production capacity reduction and environmental protection and production restriction policies for the coal, coke, and steel industries, setting the tone for "fixing coke with steel and replacing it with reduction.
" Among them, in 2018, the State Council issued the "Three-Year Action Plan for Winning the Blue Sky Defense War", emphasizing increasing coking capacity reduction efforts.
At this point, the main production areas began to focus on eliminating the excess coking capacity.
What is the situation of coking capacity replacement in Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2020? Has the goal of "capacity and output dual control" been achieved? How much new capacity will Shanxi Province have in 2021? How long can the previous gap in capacity replacement be filled? Based on statistical data, this article analyzes the laws of the data and the reasons behind it, and deduces the changes in coking capacity in Shanxi Province in the next two years, in order to provide a reference for the market.
The first two years of "psychological construction" and the third year of "real knives and real guns" Shanxi is the main province of my country's coking production, and its production capacity ranks first in the country.
As of 2018, its production capacity accounted for 24.
5% of the country's total production capacity.
The implementation of its capacity elimination Representative.
We have conducted statistics on the production capacity elimination in Shanxi Province in the past three years and found the following characteristics: First, the policy is strongly suppressed, and the actual completion situation lags behind the elimination plan.
As of the end of 2020, Shanxi Province has completed the elimination of 51.
4 million tons of production capacity in three years.
According to the plan, this number should be 57.
87 million tons, reducing the resistance by about 11.
2%.
Pressure reduction resistance = (1-actual completed cumulative amount / planned elimination cumulative amount) × 100%.
Among them, in the 2020 reduction plan, 3.
59 million tons will be postponed to the end of March 2021, and the remaining 2.
88 million tons have not been disclosed.
Second, the first two years are a buffer period, and the third year is mandatory.
In 2018, the completion rate of production capacity reduction tasks in Shanxi Province was 59%.
In 2019, it increased slightly to 68%.
The "final year" soared to 95%, and the overall elimination task was basically completed.
In the first two years, most of the unimplemented capacity reductions were postponed until the following year before being shut down and exited.
Third, it is difficult to "cut meat" and take the lead in eliminating zombie production capacity.
If the zombie production capacity is excluded and only the production capacity is used as the statistical caliber, then it can be found that the production capacity eliminated from 2018 to 2020 in Shanxi Province has been reduced to 36.
37 million tons.
In addition, on a yearly basis, effective production capacity accounted for 15% of the eliminated capacity in 2018, 39% in 2019, and 88% in 2020.
It can be seen that most of the production capacity eliminated in the previous two years was ineffective, and did not materially weaken the local supply capacity.
Only the concentrated elimination in 2020 will have a greater impact on market supply.
It is worth noting that the pressure reduction resistance calculated based on the production capacity caliber narrowed to 4.
5%, we guess, is that the priority elimination of zombie production capacity has reduced some of the pressure.
Inconsistent reductions in Jinzhong's "bones" The most "hard to bite" coking capacity in Shanxi Province is mainly distributed in six regions, and the total production capacity accounts for 95% of the province's coking capacity, which is also the focus of this coking capacity reduction and replacement.
According to statistical results, in the past three years, the reduction of coking capacity varies greatly in different regions.
Among them, Changzhi City and Taiyuan City have completed relatively well, while other regions have greater resistance to capacity reduction.
The implementation of Changzhi City exceeded expectations.
The completion rate of the coking capacity elimination plan in Changzhi was the highest, reaching 100% in 2018, and even exceeding the completion in the next two years.
The reason is that, on the one hand, most of the capacity reduction in the first two years was ineffective capacity.
In 2018, ineffective capacity accounted for 100%, and in 2019 it accounted for 42%; on the other hand, the local government not only imposed reduction tasks on provincial governments.
Effective execution, and proactively increased efforts to launch new plans.
Taiyuan City carried out coking reforms "dramatically".
Taiyuan City began to make efforts in 2019 to eliminate and withdraw zombie production capacity, with a planned completion rate of 100%; in 2020, a total of 9.
12 million tons of production capacity was withdrawn, which was the largest reduction in the province that year and the highest proportion of the original volume.
At the beginning of 2019, Taiyuan City was criticized by the Central Environmental Protection Supervision Group "looking back".
This may be the main reason why Taiyuan's determination to reform is so strong.
Jinzhong's production capacity is not large, but it is the most "difficult to eat".
Jinzhong's planned completion rate from 2018 to 2020 has not reached 100%, and they are all at a relatively low level in the same year.
Most of the production capacity reduction tasks have been delayed for one year.
Luliang, a major coking city, is 100% completed in the first year, but the completion rate in the next two years is inverse, and most of the production capacity involved is in-production capacity.
The completion of the reduction in Linfen City has improved year by year.
The goal of dual control of production capacity and production has not yet been achieved.
From 2019 to 2020, Shanxi’s coking capacity replacement gap (elimination of in-production capacity-actual new capacity) is approximately 11.
56 million tons.
Considering that it will take 3 months from commissioning to full production, the actual The gap may be larger.
Among them, Jinzhong City has the largest capacity replacement gap, at 3.
4 million tons.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, a coking plant in Jinzhong's closed city has taken the lead in raising prices many times.
The reason behind this is confirmed here.
Linfen and Luliang followed closely behind, with a gap of about 3 million tons; Changzhi, Yuncheng, Yangquan and Jincheng had smaller gaps in capacity replacement, within 1.
5 million tons.
Due to the new production capacity in Taiyuan City as scheduled, the production capacity at the end of 2020 will increase by 1.
28 million tons compared with the beginning of 2019.
Production capacity temporarily shrinks.
In the third quarter of 2018-2020, the production capacity of coking in Shanxi Province is basically around 135 million tons.
In 2020, Beginning in the fourth quarter, due to the approaching time limit for elimination, the government has stepped up its supervision and shut down a large number of production capacity.
The local production capacity has plummeted to less than 125 million tons.
It is worth mentioning that the production capacity of projects planned to be put into operation in Shanxi Province in the next two years will exceed 60 million tons.
Production has soared under high utilization rate.
The expectation of overcapacity reduction is strong, and the demand for superimposed finished products is strong.
In the second quarter of 2020, the coking plant will begin to increase productivity, and the capacity utilization rate will break through the previous year’s high point and continue to rise.
It reached the limit of 85% at the beginning of the third quarter and continued until the heating season .
The top grid production of the coking plant has naturally greatly increased the output.
In 2020, the monthly output of coke will be much higher than the level of the same period in previous years.
The output curve is round and parabolic.
It can be seen that the production power is extremely high, but due to the limitation of capacity, the rate of increase in output will slow down.
Among them, in the third quarter, spurred by profits, output continued to be high.
Although there was a slight surplus in the later period, the output contraction was relatively stable, and it gradually returned to the same period of the previous year in the off-season.
Conflicting industrial pain points The policy has focused on the reasons behind the difficulty in reducing production capacity, and cannot escape the entanglement of interests of all parties.
This is outside the scope of our discussion, and the policy orientation and focus are relatively clear.
It is necessary to strictly control the scale and upgrade the equipment.
It is impossible to have both fish and bear's paws.
In September 2018, Shanxi Province issued a transformation and upgrading plan for the coking industry, proposing the goal of "over 50% of the coke oven capacity of the coking chamber with a height of 5.
5 meters or more by 2020", and at the same time emphasized "strictly controlling the built capacity of coking, and striving for the province's coke The total annual output will only decrease but not increase compared with the previous year.
" At that time, the capacity utilization rate in Shanxi Province was only 62%, and there were many zombie production capacities.
The replacement of zombie production capacity would inevitably lead to a net increase in effective production capacity.
It is necessary to upgrade equipment through capacity replacement, but also to strictly control capacity and output.
The two goals are in conflict and it is difficult to achieve at the same time.
Shanxi Province preferentially chooses to resolve the main contradictions and upgrades the coking industry to stabilize its status as the largest province in coking.
The elimination of coke ovens with a height of 4.
3 meters or less has become a top priority.
Since June 2018, Shanxi Province has successively issued documents to urge cities to reduce and eliminate outdated production capacity.
However, the August 2019 implementation plan did not mention the goal of “strict production control”, and turned its focus to the elimination of outdated production capacity and adopted classification.
Elimination, phased replacement and other measures.
From the current point of view, the replacement of coking capacity in Shanxi Province has achieved remarkable results.
Most coke ovens of 4.
3 meters and below have been shut down and exited.
Capacity control is in place, but output has expanded.
Among them, Taiyuan City is the first to complete the goal of 100% large-scale coke: Taiyuan City 4.
The 3-meter machine coke oven and the clean heat recovery coke oven were all shut down as scheduled and the shutdown acceptance was completed.
The new coking project in Qingxu Fine Chemical Circulation Industrial Park was put into trial operation.
The ideal is indeed very plump, but the reality is a little skinny.
After this key node in 2020, the coke market has entered the "strong expectation" of new production capacity.
Although the phase-out of some production capacity was delayed until the end of the first quarter of 2021, the coke spot market has also risen in multiple rounds due to short supply, but the coke market has died down.
To this end, we took Shanxi Province as an example to sort out the two issues that the market is most concerned about: How much production capacity will Shanxi Province put into production in 2021? How long will Shanxi’s capacity replacement gap be filled? The production capacity "more and more adjustments" was named, and Shanxi Province strengthened the management and control of new projects.
In May 2019, the second central ecological and environmental protection inspection team reported back to Shanxi Province "looking back" and special inspections, pointing out that Shanxi Province's coking industry adjustment and optimization efforts were insufficient, and the coking capacity "increasingly adjusted.
" Subsequently, Shanxi Province again issued an action plan to reduce coking capacity in August 2019.
Compared with the 2018 implementation plan, Shanxi Province has strengthened the control of planned and under construction projects.
First, the “coking capacity that has been registered for large-scale coking projects but is unable to promote project construction” is included in the reduction list.
The unbuilt capacity included in the reduction list in 2019 reached 1,237.
40,000 tons.
Excluding the unbuilt production capacity included in the reduction list, Shanxi Province still has about 61.
7 million tons of coking projects under construction/planning.
Second, "retain the authority for the record-filing of capacity replacement and coking projects to the provincial industry authorities" to strictly control the illegal construction of new projects in each city.
As of January 20, 2021, 33.
43 million tons of coking upgrading projects under construction have passed the record of Shanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, of which 11.
36 million tons in Linfen City, accounting for 34% of the province's production capacity of projects under construction.
These registered coking projects are more certain to be completed and put into production.
Therefore, we obtained the record of Shanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology as the statistical caliber, re-organized the capacity replacement of the projects under construction, combined with the typical coke oven construction and commissioning cycle, calculated the monthly net increase in capacity, and obtained the coking capacity of Shanxi Province in the next two years.
Changes: First, the capacity gap will reach its peak in the first half of 2021.
If the remaining capacity in 2020 is eliminated as scheduled at the end of March 2021, the capacity replacement gap in Shanxi Province will be further expanded, and the overall capacity scale will drop to less than 120 million tons.
Secondly, the production capacity will oscillate upward from July 2021, and the net increase for the whole year is negligible.
By the end of July 2021, the new production capacity will be put into production one after another, and the scale of production capacity will slowly increase.
The increase in the production capacity curve sometimes has a dent.
This is because before the new capacity is put into production, the corresponding replacement capacity will be shut down and eliminated, and the new capacity will be put into production gradually.
The net increase in coking capacity in 2021 is expected to be only 1.
8 million tons.
Finally, around July 2022, the gap in capacity replacement can be fully filled, and the real capacity increase curve has lagging behind.
The capacity replacement gap of 11.
56 million tons in the past two years can only be made up around July 2022.
By the end of 2022, the coking capacity of Shanxi Province is expected to reach 140.
27 million tons.
Since it takes nearly 3 months for the newly-built production capacity to be put into production to full production, the increase in actual production capacity is lagging behind.
In the past three years, the reduction of coking capacity in Shanxi Province has encountered resistance.
After the "psychological construction" of the first two years, the third year of painful "cutting meat"; the implementation of reduction tasks varies greatly among cities in the province, and Changzhi and Taiyuan have performed well.
eye.
As of the end of 2020, the production capacity replacement in Shanxi Province has achieved remarkable results, most of which are 4.
Coke ovens of 3 meters and below were shut down; the capacity replacement gap reached 11.
56 million tons, and the scale of production capacity temporarily shrank, but the output expanded under high utilization rate.
Based on the above facts, it is clear that the goal of “double control of production capacity and production” in Shanxi Province has not been achieved, and this is actually an inevitable result of policy guidance: Shanxi Province’s capacity utilization rate in 2018 was only 62%, and there were many zombies and zombies.
The replacement of the country will inevitably lead to a net increase in effective production capacity; it is necessary to strictly control the scale and upgrade equipment.
It is impossible to have both fish and bear's paws.
Shanxi Province chose to first resolve the main contradiction, namely, replacement of production capacity and upgrading equipment.
At present, the coke market has fallen into the "strong expectation" of new capacity and put into production, and the coke market has died down.
How much new capacity will Shanxi Province have in 2021? How long can the previous gap in capacity replacement be filled? Since 2019, Shanxi has reduced the unbuilt production capacity of more than 12 million tons, but there are still more than 60 million tons of projects under construction/planning.
If the statistics are recorded by the local Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is estimated that the net increase in coking capacity in 2021 will be almost nothing, and the replacement gap will be completely filled by July 2022.
??? The above deduction is based on many assumptions and is affected by two factors: one is that new projects may be filed by the Shanxi Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology during the year; the other is that the carbon neutrality target is under strong pressure or issued more stringent Capacity reduction measures.
It can be seen that there are still variables in the second half of Shanxi Province's coking capacity replacement, and it is necessary to pay attention to the policy trends in the later period.