There is no obvious sustainability in fundamentals for the time being, and the fuel oil plate performance is weak

On January 5, the domestic crude oil sector fell first
.
Among them, the main contract of fuel oil futures opened at 2516 yuan / ton, which fluctuated at a low level today, closing down 4.
28% in early trading; As of the close, the main force of fuel oil touched 2546 yuan at the highest, and the lower 2502 yuan, down 3.
98%.

At present, the fuel oil market shows a volatile downward trend, and the performance of the disk is weak
.
As for how the fuel oil market will work, the views of relevant institutions are summarized as follows:

According to the analysis of Zhongcai Futures, on the supply side, the current export of Russian petroleum refined products has not had a significant impact; Longzhong data shows that in November 2022, the output of bonded low-sulfur ships for domestic refineries was 1.
272 million tons, down 10,000 tons month-on-month; due to poor demand, the theoretical profit of China's domestic trade ship fuel 180cst blending fell, the outlook for marine demand is not clear, and the supply is expected to be neutral
.
However, with the Fed's interest rate hike process, the market is worried about the increase in downward pressure on the economy in 23 years, so demand is likely to fall, so it is expected that ship fuel demand is still not optimistic
.
Refinery demand, although Shandong georefinery catalyzed profit recovery, coking profit is still high, short-term demand has some support
.
Power generation demand, as the temperature drops, power generation demand is gradually optimistic
.
However, the European energy crisis has not yet fermented, and natural gas prices have fallen, and it is feared that the increase in demand will not be as expected
.
Overall, it is expected that the fundamentals of fuel oil itself will not be significantly sustained for the time being, and attention will be paid to cost drivers
.

According to Shanghai Medium-term Futures, on the supply side, global fuel oil shipments in the week ended December 11 were 8.
0509 million tons, up 45.
66%
from the previous cycle.
Among them, the United States shipped 383,400 tons, down 20.
53% from the previous cycle; Russia shipped 1.
2753 million tons, up 37.
89% from the previous cycle; Singapore shipped 60,000 tons, down 88.
05%
from the previous cycle.
Fuel oil cracking spreads have recently rebounded from low levels, but considering the tight supply of raw materials, fuel oil production is expected to maintain a low growth
rate.
On the demand side, the overall global economic data is still weak and difficult to be optimistic, and demand expectations are clamped
down.
China's coastal bulk freight price index this cycle was 1110.
83, down 2.
09% from the previous cycle; China's export container freight index was 1307.
54, down 2.
38%
from the previous cycle.
Shipping rates have shown a downward trend recently, and shipping demand is expected
to weaken under the influence of global recession fears.
In terms of inventories, Singapore's fuel oil inventories recorded 20.
942 million barrels, down 461,000 barrels from the previous cycle and down 2.
15%
month-on-month.
On the whole, the fuel oil market supply is stable, the demand is light, and operationally, it is recommended to focus on swing trading
.

Dayue Futures said that the cost side drive is weak but the fundamentals are expected to repair, and the short-term fuel is expected to maintain volatile operation
.
FU2305: Intraday 2460-2540 range partial operation
.