This winter's natural gas supply and demand are stable Chemical market evaluation

Recently, the temperature has dropped, and the three northeastern provinces and Inner Mongolia have provided heat
in advance.
With the heating season in full swing, demand for natural gas for heating is expected to rise further, raising concerns
about tight natural gas supplies.
The author believes that combined with supply and demand analysis, China's natural gas supply and demand may remain stable this winter, and there will not be much risk
of short supply.

First of all, the increase in imported gas is expected to expand
.

Recently, natural gas prices in the international market have fallen sharply, which may lead to an increase
in imports at the end of the year.
On October 24, local time, the spot price of TTF natural gas trading center in the Netherlands once "flash crashed" to -15.
78 euros / MWh, the lowest
ever.
As a result, Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices followed suit
.
On October 25, the December landed price of China's imported spot LNG fell to $27.
411/MMBtu, down more than 50%
from the price in early September.
With the recent sharp drop in spot LNG prices, it is expected to stimulate domestic natural gas imports and ensure market supply
.

In addition, from the perspective of pipeline gas, according to Russian media reports, last year Gazprom supplied 10.
39 billion cubic meters of natural gas
to China through the "Power of Siberia" pipeline.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak, who is in charge of energy work, said this month that the Siberian Power pipeline could increase to 20 billion cubic meters
of gas this year.
Coupled with the import of pipeline gas from Central Asia and Myanmar, China's imported pipeline gas will maintain a growth trend
this year.

Second, domestic supply will continue to grow
.

According to the "China Natural Gas Development Report (2022)", the national natural gas production this year is about
220 billion cubic meters.
In addition, China's natural gas reserve capacity has also increased
year by year.
The latest news from various places shows that the Xiangguosi gas storage reservoir has the longest gas injection since the completion of the reservoir, with 2.
15 billion cubic meters of gas injection; The gas injection volume of the 11 underground gas storage reservoirs belonging to Dagang Oilfield recently exceeded 2.
027 billion cubic meters, and the gas production capacity is expected to exceed 2.
3 billion cubic meters this winter; Sinopec's Wen96, Jintan and Huangchang gas storage reservoirs have reserved 1.
021 billion cubic meters
of natural gas.
In addition, China Crude Oil Field Wei 11 and Qingxi gas storage are expected to be put into production at the end of the year, and the gas injection volume of gas storage in various places will increase
compared with the same period of the previous year.

In addition, according to the national plan, several coastal LNG receiving stations located in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shandong will be put into operation this year, thereby increasing the primary reserve capacity
of natural gas.

Third, the downstream demand growth is not large
.

In the first half of this year, China's natural gas market was sluggish, and consumption continued to show a negative year-on-year growth trend since March
.
Data show that in January ~ August, the apparent consumption of natural gas in China was 239.
1 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
7%.

At present, the repeated outbreaks of the new crown pneumonia have had an impact on plant start-ups, commercial operations, transportation, etc.
, as well as natural gas consumption in these areas
.
According to a recent report released by Sinopec Natural Gas Branch, based on the forecast of natural gas demand in various industries, China's natural gas demand is expected to be 358.
9 billion cubic meters in 2022, an increase of 1.
2 billion cubic meters over the previous year, and the growth rate is only 0.
3%, far lower than the average growth rate
of natural gas consumption in recent years.

In summary, supply is expected to grow, demand is not much increase, coupled with the further improvement of China's natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system construction, China's natural gas supply and demand is expected to maintain a stable trend this winter
.